Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 6/9/24
BO Breakdown 6/9/24
What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!
Bad Boys: Ride or Die Exceeds Projections, But is It a Hit?
Going into the weekend, the projections for Bad Boys: Ride or Die ranged from about $40 million to a high of $55 million. The official estimates for the weekend are showing the latest film from Sony will hit around $56 million after a strong Thursday/Friday showing and additional good holds on Saturday and Sunday. Not only did the latest Bad Boys film easily take the #1 spot at the domestic box office, but it has already made about $104,600,000 globally, according to the-numbers.com. With a budget of $100 million, the film has made about a third of what it likely needs to make to break even, which, historically, is a decent place to start. Though the start is higher than some initial projections, the film still needs to perform well down the line with strong holds if it has any hopes of breaking even at the box office.
The other major release this weekend was The Watchers, the first film from the daughter of well-known director M. Night Shyamalan. As of this writing, there is no officially reported budget, so the roughly $11 million global start is hard to place regarding financial viability. Assuming the film cost somewhere in the $25 million range would mean that the film is not off to a great start. If the budget is closer to $10 million, however, it could have a good chance of making its money back by the time it leaves theaters, as mixed reviews and light word of mouth are not likely to provide much assistance.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($56 million as a new release)
- The Garfield Movie (29% drop in 3rd weekend)
- IF (24% drop in 4th weekend)
- The Watchers ($7 million as a new release)
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (40% drop in 5th weekend)
Updates on Furiosa, Garfield, Apes, and More
Not only is Furiosa: A Mad Max Story still looking to lose around $150 million when its box office run ends, but it was knocked all the way down to the #6 spot at the domestic box office. According to my RCC charting, the film is currently at a loss of -$185,430,050. With the pace at which Furiosa is slowing down, there is no denying it will be one of the biggest flops of 2024.
While Furiosa is getting bad news once again, things continue to look up for The Garfield Movie. As I reported last week, according to my charting, the film has been able to break even and, as of this weekend, reach about $25,627,800 in net profits. Though the RCC charting tells a different story, with the film still at a loss of -$2,622,850 due to a large share of its box office coming from international markets, The Garfield Movie is pacing to easily begin netting gains sometime this week. If the film continues to hold well (domestically, in particular) down the line – and especially next weekend when it goes up against Inside Out 2 – the possibility of the film netting $50 million or more theatrically is not off the table.
For anyone wondering about the Krasinki film IF’s box office prospects, they are still looking grim despite the fact that it has seen very solid holds every week it has been out. The fact remains, however, that with a weak domestic start and a bit too much money invested to make up, the film currently stands at about -$86,684,000 in the red. While I would not write off the possibility for this film to see some success on various VOD platforms and, later on, physical media, that will not be able to save it from ending well north of -$50 million in financial losses when it leaves theaters.
The last update is on the latest Planet of the Apes film. Even though some in the mainstream box office media are still covering the film’s global “milestones,” it still stands to lose roughly -$77,813,436. Not only is the largest international market China, where studios get a paltry 25% take, but the movie’s massive international total easily outweighs the domestic. I have mentioned in the past that Disney could still walk away from the film with cash since it was not the sole producer and primarily had the duty of distribution. But the main takeaway for this film should be that the somewhat rosy picture being painted by some in the media (looking at you, Tony) should not be taken seriously.
Check out my channel for the latest box office breakdown video HERE.
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
