Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 10/6/24

Movies

What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!

Joker: Folie à Deux Bombs

After the massive success of Joker back in 2019, which was able to reach over $1 billion globally as an R-rated film, the sequel has shown that if you don’t give fans something they actually want, you get what you deserve. Making only $40 million domestically and about $121,100,000 worldwide, this $200 million continuation of the story of Arthur Fleck is likely going to lose quite a bit of money when all is said and done. It must be said, however, that the $81 million international showing for an opening weekend might actually be a sign that the film at least has a chance not to be the biggest flop of 2024.

On average, most movies make about 30% of their entire box office run in their global opening weekend. If that holds true for Joker: Folie à Deux, the film will end its run between $365-$400 million globally. While this would still mean it would be losing quite a bit of money, needing to make between $500-$600 million to break even, there is a very small glimmer of hope, but it would still mean losing north of $100 million, which, for a sequel to a massive financial hit from just a few years ago, means… it is an epic fail.

According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:

1. Joker: Folie à Deux ($40 million opening weekend)
2. The Wild Robot (48% drop in 2nd weekend)
3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (36% drop in 5th weekend)
4. Transformers One (42% drop in 3rd weekend)
5. Speak No Evil (34% drop in 4th weekend)

The Wild Robot Holds Strong, But Will it Be Enough?

As of the writing of this article, the box office for The Wild Robot is currently sitting at around $100,434,000 worldwide. There is a chance that the international numbers for the movie have not yet been updated, and if/when they are, it could mean an even better outlook for the movie’s long-term success. Based on the numbers currently available, however, after two weeks of release, the film is now projected to make somewhere between $143,477,143 and $200,868,000 globally by the end of its run. Even if the international numbers do not improve for next weekend, there is still a very good chance for The Wild Robot to be a “chart breaker” and perform better than the average film historically does. The fact that the movie only dropped around 48% domestically from its opening weekend (which was quite strong) means it is currently pacing to at least double its domestic take when all is said and done. Though the $78 million budget is on the lower end of most modern animated films, the fact that it is a mostly unknown property as a book adaptation and is doing as well as it is should not be ignored. As of right now, the charting projects the film to make only about $3 million in net profit in the best-case scenario (at least historically). Though this could still pan out, as 2024 is showing itself to be quite cruel to most films at the box office regardless of quality and heart, if I had to make a bet, it would be on the potential of The Wild Robot.

Megaflopolis Flops Big

After last weekend’s disappointing opening for the much anticipated Francis Ford Coppola vanity project Megalopolis (now rightfully renamed Megaflopolis), the news has not gotten any better. By only making about $8.5 globally after two weeks at the box office, the +$120 million film is currently projected to make a best-case $17,000,000 worldwide and will likely not even reach that. This means that we can now project that the movie will lose well over $150 million and could lose over $175 million when the final numbers are tallied. Not only would this make it a massive flop, but it would also make it a contender for the biggest box office bomb for the entire year. Megaflopolis is the all-too-perfect “name” this film has earned quite well.

Check out my channel for the latest box office HERE.

If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!

(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)

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