Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 10/20/24
What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!
Smile 2 Has Solid Opening, Matches Success of the Original
The success of Smile back in 2022 led to a very quick green light for a sequel, and it looks like that decision is going to pay off quite well for a film that only cost $28 million to make. Though they added another $10 million to the budget this time around, the fact that Smile 2 has made about $46,000,000 globally in its debut is a strong sign that this will be just as much a success as the first movie and likely means there will be at least one more film in this new franchise. When you compare the two domestic opening weekends, the totals are essentially identical, with the new movie losing to the original when adjusted for inflation by only about $140K. The ticket price changes have also been quite minimal, so the differences there are also marginal.
With a budget of $28 million, Smile 2 needs to make between $70-$85 million worldwide to break even. By making $46 million in its opening weekend, it is currently at a loss of about -$20,150,000 which it will likely make back by the end of next weekend or, in the worst-case scenario, a few days after that. One factor that some may mention is that the last Venom movie is set to release next weekend, and that film will likely eat up the majority of the weekend’s box office. The Last Dance has seen a huge decrease in its tracking, dropping from a high of a projected $100 million domestic opening to now hovering in the +$60 million range. Add to this the fact that Smile 2 has been getting solid praise all around and that horror films in October tend to do quite well even if they are only half decent, and the chances of Smile 2 being another financial success for the franchise are still very high.
According to the-numbers.com, the top five this weekend domestically were:
- Smile 2 ($23 million as a new release)
- The Wild Robot (28% drop in 4th weekend)
- Terrifier 3 (51% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (30% drop in 6th weekend)
- We Live in Time ($4.1 million as a newer wide release)
Terrifier 3 Holds Strong and Keeps Adding Profits
This weekend also saw strong holds from last week’s box office winner, Terrifier 3, and what is likely to be this year’s “little engine that could” film, The Wild Robot. In the case of Terrifier 3, it must be restated that the cost of only $2 million for the budget and a total estimated cost of about $3 million when you add marketing means that as of this writing, the movie has already made over 19x its budget. When most big box office hits in a given year make anywhere between 4-10x their budgets on average, this feat by Terrifier 3 becomes that much more impressive. After two weeks of release, we can now project that the film will make between $55,534,450-$77,748,230 globally when its box office run ends. This means that profits for the film (which it has already started to make after its opening weekend alone) will end somewhere between $30-$43 million. To say that Terrifier 3 is a success is quite an understatement, as it has the potential to be one of the most profitable movies of all time (when compared to its budget, of course).
The Wild Robot has also continued to impress since its release. There are many who have tried to argue that the film does not have a good chance of reaching the break-even point during its theatrical run by pointing to how much money it still needs to make or by saying that the film is already available on VOD. The problem with both points, however, is that it ignores the bigger picture; The Wild Robot has seen tremendous holds for every week of its release, especially in the domestic market. The movie has only just been released in the UK, where it is likely to make a decent amount of money. Though the release in Japan is delayed until February of 2025, for some reason, it likely will not even need that to reach profitability.
The strongest evidence I can put forward is to compare where The Wild Robot was after two weeks to where it is now. The best-case scenario for the film was initially estimated to be about $200,868,000 based on its first two weeks at the global box office. It is currently sitting at $196,046,000, which means that it will easily pass its “best-case scenario” in a matter of days. When this kind of thing happens, based on my charting, I call this a “chart breaker,” which can either be in the positive (making more than estimated) or the negative (making less). The Wild Robot will be a “chart breaker” and could easily end up making another $50 million or so globally over the rest of its release. If – and, likely, when – this happens, it will make its money back, and then some, especially in conjunction with what will likely be strong VOD and physical media sales.
Check out my channel for the latest box office HERE.
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
