Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 11/3/24

Movies

What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!

Venom: The Last Dance is Profit-Bound, Wins Terribly Slow Weekend

Though the domestic opening for Venom: The Last Dance was the lowest in franchise history, the international showing for this film has been its saving grace, and at this rate, it will easily be enough to bring the film a fair amount of profit by the end of its box office run. After two weeks of release, the movie has only reached $90,047,000 domestically, which is still roughly $60 million behind the box office for the last Venom film, which came out in 2021. The international story is where things start to change, as the newest flick has captured an impressive $317,047,000 after its 2nd weekend. Though the first two weeks were more difficult to track in 2021 due to COVID delays, Venom: Let There Be Carnage had only accrued about $267,177,670 worldwide in the same length of time. Since Let There Be Carnage was able to reach an adjusted $531,629,874, it is very likely that Venom: The Last Dance will be able to overtake the international total of the previous film. If we add to that the fact that The Last Dance only dropped about 49% in its 2nd weekend, which indicates a strong hold compared to its opening, there is a decent chance for it to beat the total box office of the previous film.

Based on the 2nd weekend total of $317,047,000, we can now project that Venom: The Last Dance will end its box office run with around $452,924,286 to $634,094,000. If the movie can perform at the historical average compared to the first two weeks, it would still put it above the total of Venom: Let There Be Carnage. Whether I like it or not, the numbers are quite clear. The only problem is the same issue from last week: the massive take it is getting from China. By only keeping 25% of the Chinese box office when all is said and done, the other markets will have to pick up the weight of the money lost to the CCP.

The film’s financial success seems to come down to two main principles: a manageable $120 million budget and a sizable international audience ready to eat up almost anything from this IP. Over on the free speech review platform Criticless, every single Venom film has received a “Decent” rating hovering between 40%-55%. When you dive further into the numbers, you are more likely to find “Decent” or even higher scores such as “Rad,” with a very small amount labeled “Bogus” or “Heinous.” The fact is that for most general audiences, Venom: The Last Dance has just enough to keep you entertained, but you will likely not remember it outside of the singular theatrical experience. What I can say as a final point is this: this is why we wait for the first two weekends to report so as to get the most accurate long-range forecasting on how a film will perform. The opening for this movie was not setting it up for much success… clearly, this has changed, as the film is now looking at over $75 million in net profits on the low end.

According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:

1. Venom: The Last Dance (49% drop in 2nd weekend)
2. The Wild Robot (11% INCREASE in 6th weekend)
3. Smile 2 (29% drop in 3rd weekend)
4. Conclave (20% drop in 2nd weekend)
5. Here ($5 million as a new release)

The Wild Robot Officially Becomes Profitable

For weeks now, I have been tracking the box office for the lovely family movie The Wild Robot, which currently has a “Most Excellent” rating over on Criticless. Not only is the movie worth seeing in theaters, but it is also the current “little engine that could” movie at the box office with its consistent holds week to week, even after being in theaters for six weeks and getting an earlier than expected release on VOD platforms. Not only did the film gain 11% in its 6th weekend comparative to last weekend (you read that right), but it also hit the #2 spot at the domestic box office during this slow box office weekend. The best news of all, however, is that we can now officially say that this movie is making a profit. After reaching $269,095,460 worldwide on a budget of only $78,000,000, The Wild Robot currently sits with roughly $7,807,250 in net profits. Since this movie still has some gas in the tank and is likely doing well on VOD, there are good prospects for the overall profitability of this movie being more than enough to fund future projects for the studio… though I hope they leave this movie as a self-contained story and do not try to make another franchise out of it.

If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!

(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE, and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)