Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 1/12/25
What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!
Den of Thieves 2: Pantera Barely Beats Month-Old Releases
As January, the month where films go to die, continues to roll along, a sequel that no one seemed to be asking for, Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, has finally been able to knock down the most recent box office contenders with a fairly weak $15,500,000 domestic opening and a reported $20 million global start. If you were surprised to learn that this movie was a sequel because you had never heard about the first one, you could not really be blamed since the original flick only made about $80,147,166 back in 2018. Seeing that, at the time, that was about 2.7x the reported budget of $30 million, it is a bit of a head-scratcher as to why Lionsgate/STX Entertainment thought this would be a profitable bet. One could argue that the original had a second life on physical media and/or streaming, but when barely-break-even films like these get greenlit for a sequel, it does make you wonder how they can justify the expense, even if it is on the lower side of most Hollywood fare these days. Den of Thieves 2 had an estimated budget of about $40 million, and with the current opening calculated, it presently sits at roughly -$50 million in the red. With how most lower-budgeted movies are performing at the global box office these days (especially the vast majority of Lionsgate releases), it seems safe to assume that this will be yet another box office flop for the Lionsgate brand. The apathy for this movie can really be felt over on Criticless, where Den of Thieves 2 only has four ratings as of this writing, which is not yet enough for an official rating and consists of scores ranging from 59% “Decent” to a possibly overstated 90% “Most Excellent.”
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Den of Thieves 2: Pantera ($15.5 million as a new release)
- Mufasa: The Lion King (44% drop in 4th weekend)
- Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (48% drop in 4th weekend)
- Nosferatu (48% drop in 3rd weekend)
- Moana 2 (48% drop in 6th weekend)
Moana 2 on the Cusp of Hitting $1 Billion
As I predicted would happen many weeks ago, Moana 2 is now only about $10 million away from hitting the coveted $1 billion mark that so many studios often strive for. Though many in our corner of the box office online YouTube space called Moana 2 a flop/failure, and some even doubted that it had any chance of getting close to this amount, the numbers speak for themselves and have been pretty clear since the film first opened in November.
It can be very easy for us to fall into our own personal biases, and there is no doubt that I have also fallen into that place from time to time, but we always have to be very cautious in allowing that bias to cloud the numbers, which are oftentimes straightforward and easy to read. It must be stated, however, that the box office feat that Moana 2 is about to accomplish does not change the fact that the movie does not even come close to the quality of the original film. It seems highly likely that most people will forget about this movie and opt to rewatch the first Moana instead if they wish to go back to this world. It is also true, however, that Moana 2 has beaten out the original film in almost every way at the box office. Even if you adjust for inflation, this shows a clear building of the audience, which is likely due to the success of the previous film not only during its original theatrical run but most especially due to the success it saw on streaming and VOD. It also must be stated that based on the reported $150 million budget and the $100 million in reported marketing costs, Moana 2 currently has a net profit of $208,919,348. The sleeper of 2024 has almost finished the story, and there is no doubt it will be done by the time next week’s box office article is being written. An early kudos to Disney for having 3 films reach the $1 billion mark in the same year.
Sonic 3 Finally Makes Profit as Nosferatu Nears Break-Even; Mufasa Still Has a Chance
Even though Mufasa: The Lion King has once again been able to edge out Sonic the Hedgehog 3 at the weekend box office, we can finally state that the blue hedgehog has broken even and made a profit… even though, at the moment, it is a very low $1,603,358 in profit. While it is true that Sonic 3 saw a delay in its international release, the movie has not yet really shown any crazy potential in the global box office numbers that have been reported. According to the-numbers.com, we do not yet have any specific reporting coming out of China, but according to the subreddit “boxoffice,” it has reportedly bombed there in its opening weekend. Personally, I do still believe the movie has a lot of gas in the tank and will be able to beat out 2022’s Sonic the Hedgehog 2… it must also be stated, however, that based on the current tracking, it seems likely that Sonic 3 will only make between $450-$500 million globally, which, though good for a Sonic movie in comparison to the previous films, still doesn’t really seem like the heights this IP should be capable of reaching. This projected total will lead to good profits at the box office, but in reality, not all that much.
Lastly, I will speak to Nosferatu and Mufasa. In the case of Nosferatu, it currently sits at about -$8,410,760 in losses, having made $135,795,345 globally at the box office. With another good domestic box office drop, it seems that the movie is guaranteed to make a small profit. When it comes to Disney’s Mufasa, we have a much wilder story to tell. After an abysmal opening weekend, it seemed that the fate of this movie as a flop was all but guaranteed. Instead, we have seen strong box office holds every single week, both domestically and internationally. The movie currently sits at roughly -$57,876,394 in box office losses based on the reported budget of $200 million. While the film still has a lot to do if it wants any chance of making a profit (and if its costs, especially marketing, are higher than expected), the fact that they are seeing any daylight at all with this movie is pretty remarkable.
Check out my latest box office video HERE!
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
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If you want to know what kind of political leanings movies have or just talk about cinema, check out the movie ratings community Criticless.
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