Captain America: Brave New World Pre-Sales Paint a Grim Box Office Picture
Things keep getting worse for Marvel’s next big movie. Captain America: Brave New World, the first Captain America movie that won’t have Captain America in it, features Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson in the lead role and Harrison Ford taking over as General Thaddeus “Thunderbolt” Ross (who is now President of the United States) from the unfortunately deceased William Hurt. Tim Blake Nelson will also return following his long absence after appearing in The Incredible Hulk, fulfilling the tease that his Samuel Sterns would become Hulk villain the Leader. Giancarlo Esposito, Rosa Salazar, Shira Haas, Danny Ramirez, and Carl Lumbly also star in the film, which will be released on February 14, 2025. Brave New World has had a rocky road to theaters, with a series of reshoots so massive that Tim Blake Nelson has admitted that the movie has been almost entirely remade at least once, and Giancarlo Esposito was recently added as the villainous Sidewinder. With the diminishing returns for Marvel movies recently – Deadpool & Wolverine being an exception – and little perceived interest in this one, Brave New World isn’t expected to do all that well.
The box office predictions are bearing those gloomy forecasts out. Last week, the tracking for the film was released, and it said that Captain America: Brave New World was looking at an $86-95 million three-day domestic opening and somewhere north of $100 million counting that Monday, which is President’s Day, making it a four-day weekend in America. For a movie that cost $375 million that the studio will admit to – before marketing and not including one or two of the later reshoot sessions – that’s not good and will mean another Marvel bomb unless the word of mouth is insanely good and the box office holds on for several weeks, which is unlikely. But those early predictions are looking a might hopeful now that tickets have gone on sale, at least according to box office analyst Luis Fernando. The good news (which is a stretch) is that it’s doing better than The Marvels – 1.4x better, to be exact. However, it’s doing worse than Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, and about on par with Eternals, a huge loser for Marvel that featured super-powered alien beings and massive Celestials and somehow still cost less than Captain America: Brave New World.
And yeah, #CaptainAmerica: #BraveNewWorld had its pre-sales kickoff on FRI at US #BoxOffice!
After 2 days of pre-sales, although nowhere near #Quantumania which opened on the same weekend in 2023, #CaptainAmericaBraveNewWorld is currently 1.4x better than #TheMarvels &… pic.twitter.com/tUjyyHE1Sx— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) January 19, 2025
What do these numbers mean for Captain America: Brave New World’s opening weekend? Well, Eternals made $71,297,219 in its opening weekend, which is significantly less than the low-end prediction for Brave New World. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania pulled in $106,109,650 in its first weekend, which is about what Brave New World was predicted to make, including President’s Day; Fernando doesn’t specify if the ticket sales include Monday, but I assume they do. If so, this is very bad for Brave New World, which isn’t even capitalizing on an extra day in its opening weekend. Fernando also said that Brave New World’s ticket sales are “not that far from” Dune: Part Two and Black Widow; Dune: Part Two made $82,505,391 in its three-day opening weekend, and Black Widow made $80,366,312. Those are about the low-end prediction for Brave New World, meaning it has to catch up to stay within that already weak margin. Also, keep in mind that Black Widow was released during the COVID lockdowns, which certainly hampered its box office returns, as did Disney releasing it on Disney+ Premiere Access at the same time it hit theaters, so Brave New World is trailing a severely handicapped movie (albeit one starring a beloved character and OG Avenger played by a popular actress). Of course, things could change; people could be waiting to buy their tickets, and the movie could get great word-of-mouth after it premieres. But I’m doubtful on both counts; Captain America: Brave New World is on course to bomb, with a bunch of phony “What Went Wrong?” articles popping up amidst the rubble.
Let us know what you think of the Captain America: Brave New World pre-sales in the comments!
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