Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 2/23/25
What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!
Captain America: Brave New World Drops Massively in Week 2
After a week of coping from mainstream media shills and MCU stans, the second-weekend numbers are now officially here… and to no one’s surprise, they spell guaranteed disaster for Captain America: Brave New World. After experiencing a near-franchise high 82% Friday-to-Friday drop, the fourth installment of the Captain America series marginally improved but still ended the weekend with an expected 68% drop, which is exactly the drop that Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania experienced two years ago over the same time frame. Though this does not set any new records for the MCU, it does indicate that the chances of the film breaking $200 million domestically and even $400 million internationally are looking worse and worse every single day.
At the same point of release, Quatumania had just crossed $167,079,387 domestically and roughly $363 million globally. As of the most recent projections, Brave New World only has $141,205,738 domestically and $289,405,738 globally, which means the movie is tracking behind the 2023 film by about 15% domestically and a whopping 20% worldwide. If this tracking continues, Brave New World will only make $370 million globally and $181 million domestically by the end of its box office run. Though there is always a chance that a movie will gain some ground after its second weekend, the chances of that happening in this case are not very likely.
Even with that being the case, according to my charting, if Brave New World performs within the historical average for all film releases, it will end its run with somewhere between $413,436,769 and $578,811,476. Taking into account how poorly the film is tracking and how bad the word-of-mouth is, even if you assume the $180 million reported budget is true (see last week’s article, where I discuss why that flies in the face of reason), it would still end up losing money at the box office. For anyone to still try and argue that this movie is in any way successful or has any chance left to break even, one would have to assume that you either have access to some secret data that no one else does or there is some financial incentive for you to continue to push MCU propaganda and lies… I will let the reader decide which they think it is. For those still with me in the land of reason and mathematics, we can now officially say that Brave New World is on track to lose at least -$200 million, assuming the budget is only $300 million.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Captain America: Brave New World (68% drop in 2nd weekend)
- The Monkey ($14.2 million as a new release)
- Paddington in Peru (49% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Dog Man (40% drop in 4th weekend)
- Ne Zha 2 (59% drop in 2nd weekend)
Why Paddington in Peru is in a Better Situation Than Brave New World
As I briefly mentioned last week, the third film in the Paddington franchise opened to quite a lackluster $12 million domestically after it had already racked up over $100 million internationally, where it received an earlier release. Due to how the film was released, I will unfortunately not be able to make any kind of accurate projection of how much money it will make by the end of its run. All that I can say is that Paddington in Peru cost around $90 million to make before marketing and that, as of right now, it is about -$72,056,277 in the red. Though the numbers look quite bleak, there is good reason to think the film will be alright in the long run. The fact is that Paddington in Peru is only tracking about $4 million behind the (adjusted for inflation) domestic numbers for Paddington 2, which came out in 2018. It also will not be released in Japan until May, which is a country that accounts for roughly $5 million of the second film’s international total. The thing that will help Paddington in Peru the most is what will likely be a strong showing on VOD, as the previous film became quite popular in its own time, and the ratings for both movies are quite strong.
The Monkey Opens Strong
The last film to talk about this week is the new release from Neon, The Monkey, which opened domestically to $14,200,000. With a budget of only $10 million, this puts the film on track to likely make its money back, plus some small profit, over the next couple of weeks. Having roughly 20 reviews over on Criticless at the moment, the film is getting mixed reviews but currently holds a 62% “Rad” score. By the end of next weekend, we will have a much better idea of where The Monkey will end its box office run and whether it will be able to justify any potential sequels that could come about.
Check out my latest box office videos on my YouTube channel HERE!
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
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