Box Office Breakdown for Week of 2/16/25
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Captain America: Brave New World Sees Worst Opening of Franchise
The time for speculation is finally over, and while shills over at Deadline like “Tony” continue to run with the same tired pro-Disney propaganda, the numbers are quite clear: Captain America: Brave New World is in some trouble both domestically and internationally, regardless of how much the movie cost. To make the point as clear as we can, we will be utilizing the metrics from the 2023 release of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania due to the fact that it was released over the President’s Day weekend that year, reportedly had a similar budget (later proven to be false), and so far has almost the same exact rating from both audiences and critics at the often criticized (for good reason) review site Rotten Tomatoes.
Starting with the opening weekend box office analysis and comparison, it is currently being reported that Captain America 4 made an estimated $88.5 million domestically and roughly $180,900,000 at the global box office. While some box office so-called “experts” will claim that this is a massive win due to the questionably reported $180 million budget and their logically flawed claims that this somehow means that the movie has already made its money back, when you dig just a little bit into how the box office works, it is clear that even assuming this absurd claim of $180 million in production costs, this film is still quite far from any break-even point.
Before diving deeper into these opening numbers, let us spend a little time explaining the fight over how much this film cost to make. In June of 2024, it was reported that the various reshoots and reportedly awful test screenings had resulted in the Captain America: Brave New World budget ballooning to roughly $350-$375 million before any marketing costs had been accounted for. This report did not get any real pushback until January of this year when the trades began simultaneously reporting that the movie only cost a franchise low of $180 million. There is reason to doubt both sides of the budget reporting since World of Reel, which reported the $350 million budget, was basing the number on inside sources and speculation, while the mainstream sources are likely relying on information that the studio wants out. No matter who you believe, both sides can arguably be said to have credibility issues, and neither is perfect in its reporting.
This still leaves the question of how much the movie actually cost. The quick answer is that we will likely never find out due to how Disney handles their financial disclosures. Even so, we can still wade our way through the noise and examine some key facts that point rather easily to the $180 million figure likely being inaccurate. Over the last few years, many of Disney Marvel’s movie productions have had much of their filming occur in the United Kingdom, where their tax incentive structures make them an ideal destination for any massive production company. The main problem with filming there, however, is that the studios are forced to publicly disclose how much money they spent on their movies so that the tax credits they receive can be properly reported. Going back to Quantumania as a key example, it was originally reported that the movie likely cost around $200 million. After several months and thanks to the intrepid reporting of Caroline Reid over at Forbes, it was revealed that the movie actually cost $330 million after the tax incentives were factored in, and this was still without any actual marketing costs being reported. Caroline helped expose how many more Disney movies (especially ones in the MCU) were in the same boat and cost a lot more than reported. Given the pattern of under-reporting, the extensive reshoots reported throughout the production of Captain America 4, the lack of disclosure requirements due to filming in Georgia instead of the UK, and Disney’s broader spending habits within the MCU, the claim that the movie cost only $180 million is laughable, calling into question the credibility of those who accept it.
Now that this context has been provided, let us crunch some numbers to show how bad an opening this is for Brave New World. When we first compare how this movie’s domestic numbers are looking against the other films from the Captain America series, whether you compare estimated ticket sales or adjust the domestic totals for inflation to create an even playing field, Captain America 4 is last with only $88.5 million, which lags behind the adjusted $93 million of Captain America: The First Avenger from 2011. If inflation drives you nuts, the same story is shown when you compare the roughly 8,204,101 tickets sold domestically in 2011 versus the 6.3 million tickets sold just this past weekend. Having about 2 million fewer people see your movie after all of the money spent and all of the big marketing pushes is not a good result, no matter what mainstream media hacks might say.
Things get even worse for this movie when you compare it to the 2023 release of Quantumania, which had a better domestic opening over the same President’s Day frame with a total of $106,109,650 domestically and $225,300,000 worldwide compared to the $180,900,000 of Captain America 4. Based on where the film is currently tracking, it seems likely that Brave New World will make between $450-$650 million by the end of its run. Keep in mind that if this movie just has an average performance, it will cap out somewhere around $542,700,000 worldwide. This might all sound good if you buy into the $180 million budget, which remains a hilarious lie that so many people are accepting, but remembering that the studio also had to spend at least an additional $100 million to market the movie and that the studio only gets about 55% of the total domestic box office and 40% of the international (except China, from which it gets only 25%), it is abundantly clear that Brave New World is already in a lot of financial danger. Be careful of the media lies and spin on this one… it is a far cry from seeing any potential success. Even the more normie-friendly audience over on Criticless currently has the film rated at 34% “Bogus” after 62 reviews as of this writing. Even with no competition for about two weeks, the word-of-mouth on this movie is not looking good at all.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Captain America: Brave New World ($88.5 million as a new release)
- Paddington in Peru ($13 million as a new release)
- Heart Eyes (20% increase in 2nd weekend)
- Dog Man (30% drop in 3rd weekend)
- Ne Zha 2 ($7.3 million in domestic debut)
Out of Time, But Briefly on Paddington 3
Due to time constraints, I will have to leave a few movies to analyze for next week, but I did want to mention the much-anticipated release of Paddington 3, or Paddington in Peru. These movies have been excellent for kids and families, and though Paddington in Peru only opened to $13 million domestically, it has seen a lot of international love with $128,800,000 in total global ticket sales. With a reported budget of about $90 million, Paddington in Peru still has a ways to go, but if any film can leg out and make some profits by the end of its run, it would be one in this lovely little franchise! More next week!
Check out my latest box office videos on my YouTube channel HERE!
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
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