Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 1/26/25
BO Breakdown 1/26/25
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Flight Risk Wins Another Weak January Box Office Weekend
Going into the weekend, there did not seem to be much hope for any movie (new or old) to do well as January, where films go to die, continued. This seemed like it was going to be the case for the new Mel Gibson-directed 90-minute action flick Flight Risk, which ended up making towards the higher end of the relatively low-projection estimates from the likes of Box Office Theory and Box Office Pro. With no projected budget clearly stated and costs potentially ranging from $10 million to $25 million, this kind of a start is alright but still needs to hold well next weekend to stand any chance of box office net gains.
Its current 56% “Decent” rating on Criticless indicates that the reaction to Flight Risk has been quite mixed. It seems that more people than expected are enjoying the film and speaking to their own experiences, but are at the same time not praising the movie as anything to write home about. With the current numbers, the film only stands with roughly -$8,400,000 in losses, which means the 2nd-weekend hold will truly make or break the financial success of what is likely Mel Gibson’s last major movie until The Passion of the Christ 2 finally gets underway. Flight Risk is another great reminder that January is notorious for these kinds of results, although poorly managed marketing very likely has a strong hand to play in these lower numbers.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Flight Risk ($12 million as a new release)
- Mufasa: The Lion King (28% drop in 6th weekend)
- One of Them Days (32% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (36% drop in 6th weekend)
- Moana 2 (28% drop in 9th weekend)
Mufasa Likely to Pass Sonic 3’s Domestic Box Office in the Next Week
While movies like Den of Thieves 2: Pantera and Wolf Man are dropping off quite a bit and bringing little to the box office discourse, Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King and its battle with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 has been quite an interesting battle to watch. When both films were released, Sonic 3 opened to less than expected domestically but was still able to edge out Mufasa by about $30 million. At that time, Mufasa looked to be dead in the water. Every week since has shown a good hold for both films, with Mufasa having a very clear edge in the daily totals going back to just the 2nd week the two movies were released.
This impressive run for Mufasa and the holds that it has been able to maintain have lowered the difference between it and Sonic 3 to only about $5,000,000. With the international sales already in the bag for Mufasa, the added edge of the domestic box office will make Mufasa more money globally and domestically than Sonic 3, even though the crowd reactions have shown more passion for Sonic 3. Regardless of the reasons, the numbers have moved to where they are, and Mufasa will take the box office crown in the entire global market. That being said, the massive budgetary difference between the two movies means that, whereas Mufasa will likely achieve the total box office victory, Sonic 3’s much lower budget means that it will make more net box office profits.
Check out my latest box office video HERE!
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
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