Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 1/5/25
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Mufasa Takes the Lead in Battle with Sonic 3
After one of the worst starts one could have imagined for the latest Disney “live-action” remake/sequel of a 90s classic animated film, Mufasa: The Lion King has turned a massive corner and is now marching towards the possibility of some profit by the time its run at the box office ends. With the worldwide total jumping to $476,400,931 and its domestic weekend numbers beating out Sonic the Hedgehog 3, there is little reason to doubt that momentum is clearly on Disney’s side despite Mufasa remaining one of the worst films they have released globally, with even the more normie audience on Criticless giving this film a “Bogus” 35% rating. One could argue that Mufasa is only starting to edge out Sonic 3 because of Disney’s vice grip on premium formatted screens, which Sonic has not been able to take advantage of. However, the fact would remain that Mufasa’s numbers were not expected to look this good after its opening, and the only thing that has really changed since then is time.
Regarding the box office for Sonic the Hedgehog 3, it is important to note that the slower international numbers are mostly due to the movie’s delayed global release. Not only has the film still not opened in China (where the audience did not show up for the first Sonic the Hedgehog; Sonic the Hedgehog 2 was not released there), but all of the other foreign markets saw an opening that was as early as Christmas Eve in some markets and as late as just a couple of days ago (with a few small markets yet to receive the film). Even with this being the case, the movie is currently looking at $336,308,000 at the worldwide box office, which means it has already passed the unadjusted total of the first Sonic and is getting close to passing the total of the second. We are still likely to see Sonic 3 reach roughly $500 million or more at the global box office, which would continue the trend of the franchise increasing its audience with every subsequent release. Though I am not personally a fan of these films, the audience of Criticless has made their support clear with a solid 82% “Most Excellent” rating.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Mufasa: The Lion King (35% drop in 3rd weekend)
- Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (43% drop in 3rd weekend)
- Nosferatu (39% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Moana 2 (34% drop in 6th weekend)
- Wicked (48% drop in 7th weekend)
Wicked and Moana 2 are Box Office Successes
A couple of films that have seemingly caused quite a bit of debate amongst the box office YouTube community have both continued to see strong holds and are making it almost impossible to argue that they are in any way “failures” or “flops.” Moana 2 has continued to see strong holds every single week and is currently sitting at $960,452,483 at the global box office. This not only makes the prospects of the film crossing $1 billion (as I predicted it would many weeks ago) all but guaranteed, but it also means that Moana 2 has made roughly $200 million in net profits based on the projected budget of $150 million. Even if one were to argue that the budget is actually higher or that the marketing brought the total costs to over $300 million, the film would still be looking at +$100 million in net profits and has clearly done better than the original film. Remember that box office success does not indicate whether a movie is good or not… it also doesn’t mean that a better-made film could not have made more and, therefore, means that Disney potentially left quite a bit of money on the table in an attempt to make a quick buck. The audience rating of 50% “Decent” over on Crirticless shows without a doubt that audiences are not loving this movie… but they are going to see it.
Wicked’s success is not nearly as clear as that of Moana 2, but it is still easy to show with the current numbers. Having now been released on VOD, which is likely to bring in a lot of money for the studio, the film is still in the top 5 domestic for the week and has amassed roughly $681,256,000 globally. This means that the movie will easily cross $700 million over the next week or so and is poised to end its run between $725-$825 million at the worldwide box office. Even with the marketing budget adjusted to the reported $150 million, Wicked has still made about $40,613,731 in net profits. With the release on VOD, we will start to see the film slow down (also due to the Christmas break for schools and parents ending), but having tracked Wicked every week since its release, it is clear there is still quite a bit left in the tank for this movie. The fact that it currently has a 65% “Rad” score on Criticless helps to explain why Wicked has performed better than what the awful press tour for the film truly deserved.
Nosferatu Holds Well
After having a very good Christmas opening, Nosferatu has had a strong domestic hold of about 39% and has reached over $100 million at the worldwide box office. Based on these numbers, we can now project that the film will make about $143,414,286 to $200,780,000 globally by the end of its run. Not only would this be one of the most successful box office runs for director Robert Eggers, but it would also mean likely north of $10 million in net profits. Though these numbers are nothing to go too crazy about, it must feel really good to be anyone behind that film right now as it gets universal acclaim from audiences and critics alike, with a massive 81% “Most Excellent” rating from the very passionate Criticless community. I have no doubt that this is only the beginning for Nosferatu since it is about to get a serious edge against the more kid-friendly movies, with most children going back to school over the next week, which I expect will help the film to some degree.
Check out my latest box office video HERE!
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
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If you want to know what kind of political leanings movies have or just talk about cinema, check out the movie ratings community Criticless.
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