Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 10/27/24
What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!
Venom: The Last Dance Has Franchise-Worst Opening
The state of the box office continues to show why the massive hits from the summer were not a good indication that the box office was on the mend or back to the pre-COVID times. This weekend, it is most apparent with the release of the latest in the Venom franchise, Venom: The Last Dance. Opening to $175 million globally might initially seem impressive, but it only ended up making about $50 million from the domestic market… ouch. Compared to Venom (2018), which made $97,912,022 when adjusted for inflation, and the $104,438,524 opening of Venom: Let There Be Carnage, it is clear that the audience has not returned for what has been promoted as the last of this Venom movie series. Even if you take issue with comparing the adjusted totals, the raw ticket sale estimates paint the exact same story, with the totals for each film being 8,809,633, 8,657,039, and 3,923,077, respectively. These ticket sale numbers actually show that Venom: The Last Dance’s audience was less than half of both of the previous movies.
Whether this film makes any money for Sony is still a bit too early to determine. The facts are that even though Venom: The Last Dance is, without question, a flop domestically, there seem to be quite a few markets that have an interest in the IP. Matters become a little more complicated when you take into account that, on the one hand, the movie has not yet released in Japan (though both of the previous films only made around $19 million and $9 million there, respectively), and on the other hand, the fact that it saw a +$40 million opening over five days in China where American film studios only get about 25% of the overall box office, with the rest made in that country going to the CCP. As of right now, Venom: The Last Dance, which has a $120 million budget, is in the red with about -$109,250,000 in net losses. If the movie is able to hold well internationally, it still has a chance to make some of its money back, but that is going to depend on how well it holds and, most importantly, how much of its total is made in China.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Venom: The Last Dance ($51 million as a new release)
- Smile 2 (59% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Conclave ($6.5 million as new release)
- The Wild Robot (36% drop in 5th weekend)
- We Live in Time (15% increase as wider release in 3rd week)
Smile 2 Sees Big Drop But Nears Profit
Smile 2 is an interesting release in that the original movie had a decent opening but held very well for many weeks after. Smile 2 had a better opening day than the original but ended up losing the adjusted weekend number by about $100,0000. With the sequel seeing a staggering 59% drop (the original only dropped 18%), the chances that Smile 2 will be able to match the domestic success of the first film does not seem very likely. Even though the ticket sales for the sequel are down quite a bit, the low budget of only $28 million means that the film is on the cusp of breaking even already.
With a second weekend cumulative total of only $83,714,000 (the first movie was at about $89 million worldwide at the same time), Smile 2 is projected to make between $119,591,429 and $167,428,000 by the end of its run. While the original movie was able to reach over $210 million when all was said and done, the massive drop in comparison to the first movie in the second weekend indicates that the newer film will not see anywhere close to the same holds from week to week. I can project that even though Smile 2 is set to make +$25 million in net profits – which is a far cry from the nearly $100 million in net profits of the original – it is still likely to make any investors in the film happy… especially when you remember that the streaming potential could make up for any disappointments.
Check out my channel for the latest box office HERE.
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
