Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 11/10/24
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A24’s Heretic Opens With Impressive Debut and High Criticless Ratings
A24’s theatrical releases come across as a bit of a mixed bag. Whether it is releasing a film in only three theaters to start and ending with over 1,000 or beginning with a wide release of over 3,000, A24 is a studio to watch as, more often than not, they are able to figure out how to make money theatrically. This story of box office success seems to be continuing with their newest thriller, Heretic, which features the iconic Hugh Grant and, at the moment, is also getting nothing but “Rad” to “Most Excellent” ratings over on Criticless.
Heretic opened with an impressive $11 million domestically and $13,580,962 globally as of this writing. Though there has been no reported budget yet, with A24 behind it, one would suspect it cost between $10-$20 million. Taking that average as an educated guess, the film is currently at a loss of -$15,415,207. Like most releases from A24 (especially those with good word of mouth like this one seems to be getting), Heretic will likely have a healthy run at the box office if the typical strong holds occur from week to week. If it even performs like an average movie by making roughly 30% of its entire box office in the global opening compared to its final total, the movie will just about hit that break-even point. Having now tracked several A24 releases, and after hearing nothing but glowing praise for the film, I suspect that this will be yet another box-office winner for the company.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Venom: The Last Dance (37% drop in 3rd weekend)
- The Best Christmas Pageant Ever ($11,100,000 as a new release)
- Heretic ($11,016,055 as a new release)
- The Wild Robot (11% drop in 7th weekend)
- Smile 2 (26% drop in 4th weekend)
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever Opens Strong as Here Stumbles
Those who track the box office to any degree were likely as surprised as I was to see that a Christmas movie in November was able to overperform all of the projections going into the weekend and, at least for now, bump Heretic out of the #2 spot domestically. Though the film does currently have two “Most Excellent” ratings on Criticless, I had not seen any marketing for the film or heard anything about it after a Thursday opening of only $500,000. Regardless of whatever perceptions I may have had – which were heavily influenced by the fact that it is a Lionsgate release, and their movies have done terribly for the last year or two – this Christmas movie is doing well for its opening. With an estimated budget of about $20 million, the story is not all sunshine and rainbows, as this opening is not quite enough to get it on a guaranteed track to profitability. With that being said, however, I would argue that even at a loss, this opening weekend will go a long way towards ensuring that there will not be any real cost to those financially involved in the long run.
Moving on to the 2nd-weekend numbers for the latest Robert Zemeckis film, which currently only has a “Decent” and a “Bogus” rating over on Criticless, the story gets a bit worse. Dropping only about 50% from its domestic opening, Here is still reeling from a rather low opening weekend and a mixed bag of audience reactions. Based on these numbers, we can project that the film will only make between $13,842,177 and $19,379,048 globally by the end of its run, which would mean a loss of +$50 million. No matter which way you slice it, this seemingly innovative film is set to lose quite a bit of money.
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
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Comments (2)
Heretic and Conclave. Hollywood would not attack religion so much if it wasn’t a good thing. The commie corporate institutions and systems are just no substitute for what religion can provide. If anything the more I see and hear from stupid actors and their crummy films, the more religious I am getting.
still not on Criticless yet.
I did go see Heretic. Not sure what I was expecting, maybe a Mormon version of Nefarious. That’s what it looked like so they caught me up in being interested. It was just ok. The premise is very good. Good ideas in it, but wasn’t quite up to par. I give them credit for hooking me because the religious thriller and horror stuff, I had no idea how interested I was in it. I liked the TV show Evil about Exorcists. Great tv show. I also like some comic books that try to do religious horror.
Still need to see Christmas Pageant this week. Will be interesting to see Pete Holmes in a movie.