Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 11/24/24
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Wicked Dominates the Weekend With Strong Domestic Opening
Going into the weekend before Thanksgiving, the projections for the much anticipated Wicked (2024), or Wicked: Part One, ranged from $100 million domestic to over $150 million. With estimates turning out to be $114,000,000, the movie’s potential financial success is going to come down to how it does over the coming holiday frame. While many will try to focus on Wicked and Gladiator II driving the weekend total to be the highest the box office has been in roughly eleven years, it is important to note that both movies underperformed domestically in different ways. Focusing on Wicked, it is true that the $114 million estimate is higher than the initial numbers predicted, but after the projections updated following the reported Thursday/Friday premiere, the traditional tracking moved the needle to roughly $120 million, which the current estimate clearly falls short of. Adding to this the projections made by the likes of Box Office Theory, which had the film making between $130-$150 million over the weekend, it should be plain to see why this opening number is a bit of a mixed bag.
The fact of the matter is that this upcoming Thanksgiving week is going to determine whether Wicked ends up being a marginal success or the +$1 billion dollar behemoth that many (like myself) think it has the potential to become. It would make a lot of sense to suggest that much of the anticipated audience that didn’t materialize this weekend are planning to go during the holiday frame instead, as it would free people up to plan events, dress-ups, and other things that the predominantly female audience is likely to do for a musical like Wicked. Do not be surprised to see a massive increase in the domestic box office as the week rolls along. With a budget of $150 million for this first part, the current global total puts it on track to easily reach its break-even point by the end of its run. Only time will tell just how much of a success Wicked will be. If I had to guess, I would say that this week will see an ever-increasing box office total that will likely be well-matched against Disney’s Moana 2, which releases midway through the week.
One last point about Wicked’s box office concerns the arguments that some are making that suggest it won’t be much of an international player. As someone who was a theater kid and has followed this show for well over a decade, I can confidently say that this movie will do much better overseas than some might suggest. Though I think the chance for the film to end with a higher domestic gross is still likely, the fact is that Wicked the musical has had a successful run in many countries outside of North America, and the film has an international fan base ready to show up for it. The only factor that could lead to an increase or decrease in the international crowd is how well or poorly cast the dubbed voices are… we will find out very quickly, whichever way it ends up. As of right now, the movie has a solid “Rad” score over on Criticless, with a score of 77%.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Wicked ($114 million as a new release)
- Gladiator II ($55.5 million as a new release)
- Red One (59% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin. ($5.1 million as a new release)
- Venom: The Last Dance (45% drop in 5th weekend)
Gladiator II Sees Overall Decent Opening, But is Still in Trouble
Though the mainstream media and corporate interests are trying to make “Glicked” a thing to try to emulate the success of the more naturally created “Barbenheimer” meme from last year, it is clear from the numbers that Gladiator II is not nearly as popular as Wicked. With a “Decent” rating of 48% on Criticless and receiving about $55 million in its domestic opening, the only shining light for the film is that it has amassed roughly $165,500,000 internationally. It must be noted, however, that this number includes an early global release where the film had already made over $50 million. The real problem for this sequel that no one was asking for is that it reportedly cost over $230 million to make before you account for things such as marketing costs. Because of this and the fact that studios make less money from international markets, Gladiator II is still currently in the red with about -$248,725,000 in projected losses. Though it could also benefit from the upcoming holiday week like Wicked is expected to do, the much lower domestic start means that it still has a long way to go.
In addition, just like with Wicked, Gladiator II made less than the initial projections so-called box office expers had for the movie going into the weekend. While the traditional box office was projecting a domestic start of +$60 million and the likes of Box Office Theory were projecting a range of $59-$68 million, it is clear that Gladiator II did not perform as well as anticipated. Though a lot could change over the coming Thanksgiving box office frame, as someone who has seen the movie and hated it, I do not think the word of mouth will be good enough to drive that many more people out. I also believe that if any two movies are going to drive the most people out during the Thanksgiving break, they will be Wicked and Moana 2… could we see a “Micked” or “Woana” or another silly meme pop up instead? We will find out very soon!
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
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