Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 12/1/24
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Moana 2 Dominates the Thanksgiving Frame
Going into the Thanksgiving week, it seemed apparent that the combination of Moana 2’s opening and the domestically “popular” second week for Wicked would be extremely profitable for the studios and theaters. With some in the mainstream “box office expert” media calling this the biggest Thanksgiving in domestic history, it seems like the two heroine-led movies were able to do just that. Digging further into the numbers, however, it is clear that Moana 2 is the real winner this weekend and is currently the only film with a good chance of hitting $1 billion by the end of its box office run.
Starting with the domestic numbers for Moana 2… they were massive, with $221,000,000 for the 5-day total and $135,500,000 for the 3-day weekend opening. Not only does this put the film within striking distance of the updated total for Wicked, which currently stands at $262,426,000, but it also means that Moana 2 will almost certainly end with the higher domestic number by the time both end their run at the box office. This is even more impressive when you compare these numbers to the opening weekend of the first Moana from 2016, which only made an adjusted $102,291,948 over the 5-day Thanksgiving frame and $310,011,669 in total domestically. This means Moana 2 is on pace to make more than the first movie’s domestic total in only two weeks (even when adjusted for inflation). When you try to figure out whether a franchise film is a success, you typically look to see if the movie matched or even exceeded the previous movie’s total. Put simply, when you double the opening of the previous film in a franchise, that is a huge win.
To anyone with kids or anyone simply paying attention, it was clear that Moana 2 was destined to be a huge hit. Not only did the first film end its run with an unadjusted to adjusted final worldwide total of between $686,127,612-$855,081,579, but it also had massive post-theatrical sales on physical media and has had consistently high views on Disney+. Even though the film is currently ranked as “Decent” with a 54% score on Criticless and has received much criticism for having a poor story and uninspired music, the numbers make it quite clear that Disney owns some very powerful IPs and brands that can make money with little to no effort. Unless there is a massive drop-off seen as early as Monday and especially depending on how it does in its second weekend after the holiday, there is very little doubt that Moana 2 will be one of the biggest films of 2024 and gross well over $1 billion. Keep this in mind: the only other billion-dollar animated film from this year (Inside Out 2) only opened to $294 million worldwide during the summer.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Moana 2 ($135,500,000 as a new release/5-day of $221,000,000)
- Wicked (29% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Gladiator II (44% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Red One (2% drop in 3rd weekend)
- The Best Christmas Pageant Ever (4% drop in 4th weekend)
Wicked Holds Strong, But $1 Billion Seems Unlikely, and It Will Possibly Lose Money
While the numbers seem quite clear for Moana 2, Wicked is, without a doubt, a confusing “horse of a different color.” Starting with what we can say for sure, Wicked’s second weekend was solid, with the musical reaching a total of $262,425,510 domestically and $359,270,510 worldwide. Based on these numbers (and the fact that no other major countries are likely to change the game much), we can project that the movie will make between $513,244,286 and $718,542,000 worldwide by the end of its run. Based on the reports of a $150 million production budget, if we assume typical marketing costs, it would mean that the movie would be making between $50-$150 million in net profits by the end of its run. Before diving into the open question about how much they actually spent on marketing, these current projections point to a strong showing, but a far cry from what at one time seemed to be a guaranteed billion-dollar movie. The death note for those chances has ultimately come from the international market, which, though one could argue it hasn’t been abysmal, is still way too low for a film of this size. Reaching the billion-dollar club is not required to be seen as a box office hit, but it does make it harder to argue against.
This leads to a point that has been raised by Valliant Renegade (an awesome box office and numbers analysis channel), who pointed out that the projected marketing budget for Wicked is reportedly $150 million (which is twice what would be typical for a movie with this budget) and an estimated $350 million additionally spent on marketing partnerships with companies such as retailers like Target. The problem with this second type of marketing is that it is difficult to know whether or not the $350 million is specifically money the studio spent for Wicked or the monetary value that has been given to the various partnerships. In either case, this is not just Universal spending $350 million for nothing but posters and ad buys, but instead, Universal is marketing products in conjunction with the other companies, which results in portions of profits in addition to marketing the movie with the products being created.
Regardless, this reportedly extra marketing spend is not the same as the traditional marketing studios usually spend and, therefore, cannot be accounted for in the same way. This likely means that the projected profits for Wicked are likely to be a bit smaller (perhaps $25-$100 million in net profits) but could be more or less depending on the success of those other partnerships. The last thing I will mention is that Wicked’s score on Criticless has dropped since last week to roughly 69%… which is still high enough to be listed as “Rad.”
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
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If you want to know what kind of political leanings movies have or just talk about cinema, check out the movie ratings community Criticless.
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