Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 12/29/24
What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!
Nosferatu Wins Among Christmas Day Releases
Even though it always seemed weird to release a movie that was designed perfectly for Halloween on Christmas Day, it appears that strong word-of-mouth and a moderate budget will be enough for Nosferatu to walk away with some profits by the end of its run. With an estimated budget of about $50 million, its extended opening weekend of about $43,327,000 gives the film a good start on its road to profitability. Though it is still too early to tell whether the movie will make anything or even hit its break-even point, it is abundantly clear that Nosferatu is well-positioned to find some success.
As I mentioned, a big part of the early success for this movie has been because of the rave reviews from general audiences. Currently, the passionate fans over on Criticless have granted the film a very high 84% “most excellent” score, which is quite a feat for a movie of this genre. The fact that there are currently only two negative reviews, only one of which is listed as “heinous,” speaks to why Nosferatu is doing as well as it is. It is not often that a film is adored by both mainstream critics and general audiences simultaneously… this will be a fun one to track.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (36% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Mufasa: The Lion King (5% INCREASE in 2nd weekend)
- Nosferatu ($21,150,000 as a new release)
- Wicked (37% INCREASE in 6h weekend)
- Moana 2 (38% INCREASE in 5th weekend)
Mufasa Finds New Life, Has Path to Making a Profit
After the abysmal opening weekend of Mufasa: The Lion King, there was not much hope for Disney’s latest attempt to bank on lifeless nostalgia. The Christmas box office numbers have shown that there is still some market left in family audiences for movies other than Sonic the Hedgehog 3. By actually making 5% MORE than it did in its opening weekend, we can now project that Mufasa is projected to make between $468,547,910 and $655,967,074 worldwide by the end of its run. Though its massive $200 million budget and unknown marketing costs still have the movie staring at -$152,949,579 in current losses, if it is able to keep holding on as the holiday box office frame continues, it could make over $25 million in net profits. Yes, Mufasa still has a long way to go, and there is no guarantee that this unexpected surge will continue, but the road to profits is no longer the punchline of another Disney box office joke.
Sonic 3’s Difficult International Box Office Tracking
Though Sonic the Hedgehog 3 dropped around 36% domestically from its lower-than-expected opening weekend, it remains the #1 film on the domestic chart. The most frustrating aspect of tracking the box office for this movie is how they delayed the international release in most countries until Christmas Day or the day before/after. Whenever there is a separation in the release of a film worldwide, it makes the charting that I do almost impossible to pinpoint. With that being said, the current reporting is that Sonic 3 has brought in $74,000,000 internationally and about $211,552,146 worldwide. This means the movie is currently looking at -$77,746,320 in losses still to overcome.
With the first two weeks out of the way, we can now project that Sonic 3 will make between $302,217,351 and $423,104,292 globally by the end of its run. It must be noted, however, that because of the roughly one-week delay in international numbers versus domestic, the numbers will likely reach higher; this means that a +$500 million global finish is not off the table. As a comparison, at the same point in its release, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (2022) had made about $121,740,068 domestically and $231,116,783 internationally. Considering how the film is currently tracking, I expect there is still a lot of gas left in the tank for Sonic 3, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it end with a franchise-high global box office and +$50 million in net profits. We will continue to track the Christmas box office and update as quickly as we can!
Check out my latest box office video HERE!
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
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If you want to know what kind of political leanings movies have or just talk about cinema, check out the movie ratings community Criticless.
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