Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 12/8/24
What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!
Moana 2 is Set to Make Over $1 Billion
After a massive Thanksgiving box office for the follow-up to the 2016 original, Moana 2 has now been able to hold on to the #1 spot at the domestic box office during its battle with Wicked despite losing some steam in the later weekday numbers. Not only was Moana 2 able to reach roughly $300 million domestically, but it has also made about $600 million worldwide. After two weeks, we can project that Moana 2 will likely make between $857,198,590 and $1,200,078,026 by the end of its global run. Practically speaking, this means that if the movie only has an average box office run (which the film has far exceeded), it would finish with a little over $1 billion. The fact that the movie dominated the Thanksgiving holiday frame and has shown no severe signs of slowing down means we can expect Moana 2’s success to continue through the upcoming Christmas box office frame.
When it comes to projected profits, one can expect Moana 2 to make between $250 million and $500 million in net profits by the end of its run. As of this writing, the film’s reported budget was only about $150 million. If this number ends up changing to a higher cost, it could potentially cut into those projected profits. It must be said, however, that no matter how you slice it, Moana 2 will be one of the most profitable films of 2024.
Now that we have predicted that Moana 2 will indeed reach $1 billion at the global box office, some might be asking whether the film can beat the current 2024 box office champ, Inside Out 2. At the same point of release, Inside Out 2 had taken in about $724,383,116 globally, which would give it well over $100 million in a box office advantage. Though Moana 2 is likely to hold well through the Christmas frame, it is not likely to catch up to the summertime release of Inside Out 2. Moana 2 will, without a doubt, be in the top 3-5 global releases of the year, but there is no film out now or expected to be released this month that has any chance of beating the current 2024 champ. The fact that Disney will now have three billion-dollar films in a year will likely set a few minds at ease at the administrative level after a disastrous 2023.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Moana 2 (63% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Wicked (57% drop in 3rd weekend)
- Gladiator II (60% drop in 3rd weekend)
- Red One (45% drop in 4th weekend)
- Interstellar ($4.4 million in IMAX rerelease)
Wicked Continues to Dominate
Last week, I mentioned that Wicked had a chance to lose some money during its box office run after there were reports of not only a very high marketing budget of $150 million but also a reported $300 million in additional spending. As I mentioned last week, it seemed that the marketing partnerships were simply valued at being worth that much money and not actually costing Universal that amount in addition to what it had already spent. Now that some more time has gone by, it is necessary to put the thought to bed that these high-value partnerships will in any way hurt the profits for Wicked either this year or next year when the 2nd part comes out.
With a current box office total of $455,551,000, the additional traditional marketing costs (the $150 million spent in addition to the budget), Wicked is still currently in the red, as it likely needs to make well over $500 million to finally hit that break-even point. It must be stated, however, that the movie is currently on track to reach well over $700 million globally and could even break into the $850 million territory depending on how the rest of its international run goes and if it continues to have an insane run domestically. Based on the current metrics, this means that the movie is set to make over $100 million in net profits and will likely be a chart breaker on my official charting. This will clearly put it well behind the net profits of Moana 2, but one cannot forget about the lucrative partnership deals that are likely to add much more to the coffers of Universal and those at the head of the film’s production.
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
***
If you want to know what kind of political leanings movies have or just talk about cinema, check out the movie ratings community Criticless.
Get Your Geeks + Gamers merch here!
