Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 3/10/24
What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!
Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two Dominate
The box office is finally alive once again, as this weekend saw not only the second weekend of last week’s winner, Dune: Part Two, but new releases in Kung Fu Panda 4, Imaginary, and the new film from Angel Studios and the director of Sound of Freedom, Cabrini. While Kung Fu Panda 4 took the top spot this week, the real story is about the roughly 44% drop for Dune: Part Two, which, especially for a big-budget film, is very strong.
Is the Kung Fu Panda 4 Box Office That Impressive?
Much of the talk surrounding Kung Fu Panda 4 is that the film saw the best domestic opening weekend for the franchise since the first one came out in 2008. Though Kung Fu Panda 4 had a strong opening, the historical facts tell a different tale. When you adjust the domestic opening weekends for inflation, Kung Fu Panda 4 ends up being the third-best opening weekend behind the first film’s $86,400,000 opening and the second’s $65,688,000 opening. If you break it down by ticket sales, the newest film actually had the lowest of the entire franchise, with each film selling roughly (in order of release) 8,356,546 tickets, 6,002,522 tickets, 4,763,006 tickets, and only 4,484,615 tickets for the newest one. The fact is that Kung Fu Panda has seen consistently lower audience numbers with each entry in the series. The latest film undoubtedly had a strong opening, but not nearly as strong as many in the shill media will try to sell you on.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Kung Fu Panda 4 ($58.3 million as a new release)
- Dune: Part Two (44% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Imaginary ($10 million as a new release)
- Cabrini ($7.5 million asa new release)
- Bob Marley: One Love (45% domestic drop in 4th weekend)
How Well is Dune: Part Two Actually Doing?
Dune: Part Two seems to be beating everyone’s initial box office projections. For a film that cost almost $200 million to only drop 44% domestically in its second weekend is a very impressive feat. Add to that that the movie is only about $30 million behind, whereas Oppenheimer was on its second weekend at the worldwide box office, and you see how well it’s doing. Calculating some quick math, this means that Dune: Part Two is only about 9% behind where Oppenheimer was worldwide. If that number continues to hold, Dune has a chance of hitting upwards of $864 million by the end of its run. Though my charting indicates that history is pointing closer to a total box office of $600-$750 million, the fact remains that reaching over $850 million is definitely in the ballpark. The biggest unknowns at this point are how well the film will do against the next big releases that come a little closer to the audience demographic it is courting, with the next Ghostbusters installment and the Godzilla x Kong Monsterverse movie.
Speaking of Dune’s box office, it is also important that we consider that most of its money is being made overseas… so far without any money coming out of China. Using my RCC method, Dune: Part Two is currently at -$114 million, which means it still has a ways to go before hitting a break-even point. If the film continues to trend the way that it is, it may be able to make just enough money domestically to counterbalance the losses it will be seeing in the paltry returns from the Chinese market and the other (though slightly better) international markets. All in all, the fact that Dune is going almost toe-to-toe with Oppenheimer while lacking the “Barbenheimer effect” and the advantage of a summer release is still pretty darn impressive.
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE.)
