Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 3/23/25

Movies

What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!

Snow White Opens to Global Box Office Catastrophe

After many months of terrible PR from star Rachel Zegler and an overwhelmingly negative critical response to the filmmaker’ choice to bring in CGI nightmare fuel dwarfs into the mix, the official numbers for Snow White are finally out, and they are even worse than what many of us were expecting. While the trades were projecting a $40-$55 million domestic opening, which was updated to +$45 million after the Friday numbers came in, the international markets are where the real story comes into frame. Even with the initial domestic estimates, the so-called box office shill media “experts” had been predicting/tracking that the movie would likely make over $100 million globally by the end of its opening weekend. Though they mostly predicted the domestic numbers well, the international releases vastly underperformed, with international and domestic totals mirroring each other almost identically. Keep in mind that Snow White was released in every major market at the exact same time, and there are no other scheduled international releases that could help the film down the line. Keeping in mind that most movies, on average, make about 30% of their entire box office in their global opening (which you can also say would be an average multiplier of about 3x the global opening), this means that if Snow White has an average run, we can expect it to be able to reach only $261 million globally… OOF. 

Things get worse when you remember that Snow White cost at least $270 million to make. Assuming that the movie didn’t cost more (which it likely did), this would mean that it currently sits at about -$363 million in the red… though it will likely make more over time and has a decent chance to leg out over the course of its run, this means that Snow White is currently tracking to easily lose at least $200 million when all is said and done. There is still a chance for walk-up traffic and the mom/daughter demographics to show up and push it further than the average movie with an opening like this, but that remains to be seen. While the official estimates from us will have to wait until the end of its second weekend, there are a couple of things worth pointing out while we wait:

1. With 46 votes on Criticless, the movie currently stands at a solid “Heinous” score of only 11%.
2. As some shills will likely bring up what happened to Mufasa: The Lion King, which also had a terrible opening and went on to make +$700 million, you can remind them of the vast differences in how both films were received by general audiences and that even Mufasa opened to $125 million globally, which would mean if that 30% separation between the two continued, it would still only get Snow White to $490 million. With a budget of at least $270 million before marketing and the cuts from theaters/studios, the break-even ranges from $675 million to $810 million; if the budget ends up being $300 million or more, the break-even would be roughly $1 billion. No matter how you spin it, this is awful news for Disney.

According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:

1. Snow White ($43 million as a new release)
2. Black Bag (37% drop in 3rd weekend)
3. Captain America: Brave New World (33% drop in 6th weekend)
4. Mickey 17 (25% drop in 3rd weekend)
5. Novocaine (29% drop in 2nd weekend)

Black Bag Expected to Flop, Though There’s Some Hope for Novocaine

While Black Bag currently has a massive budget problem, having cost roughly $50 million to make, Novocaine, with its $18 million reported budget, is in a much better position to potentially break even while in theaters (though the jury is still out on that one) and is absolutely in a better position to make some money post-theatrical with the various revenue streams movies can have after they leave theaters. With the first two weeks having ended, we can now project that Black Bag will end its run with between $34,417,143 and $48,184,000 globally. This would equate to roughly -$50 million in net losses. On the other hand, Novocaine is expected to make about $30,098,571 to $42,138,000 and because of its much smaller budget will likely end its run with only about -$5-$10 million in box office losses. Hopefully, you can see why one is in a much better situation than the other and why there is still a chance for Novocaine, which has gotten decent word-of-mouth, to possibly break even when all is said and done. Black Bag currently rocks a 74% “Rad” score on Criticlesswith only 13 votes, while Novocaine has a 64% “Rad” score with 31 voters. Even with the higher score, Black Bag is not getting enough people interested in going to check it out. 

Brave New World Officially Hit $400 Million Globally

As I have been predicting for the last few weeks, Captain America: Brave New World has finally reached $400 million at the global box office. While the shills will call this a major milestone, the facts and numbers are very clear: this is one of the worst MCU box office runs in history, and the movie’s budget, which very likely exceeds $300 million, means it is looking to lose $200-$250 million when its run ends, likely over the next few weeks. 

Check out my latest box office videos on my YouTube channel HERE!

If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless! 

(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)

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