Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 4/6/25

Movies

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A Minecraft Movie Destroys Projections, $1 Billion Is on the Table

Though some did warn not to underestimate the box office potential of A Minecraft Movie, I do not think anyone could have imagined the numbers we are getting from its opening weekend in both the domestic and international markets. Not only is Minecraft destroying the likes of Brave New World and Snow White, but the movie is also setting itself up as the best box office opening of 2025 and is even going toe-to-toe in many ways against the very successful Super Mario Bros. Movie from a couple of years ago. It must be stated, however, that as many will run with the fact that Minecraft is eclipsing the 3-day opening weekend of Mario, that only works if you ignore the box office from its opening Wednesday, as Super Mario Bros. was working with a holiday weekend (that is to say, it’s an unfair comparison). That being said, the fact that the domestic opening for Minecraft is also only about $10 million lower than the massive Barbie opening weekend from 2023 (after inflation) is also very dang impressive.

With a global opening of roughly $300 million and a reported budget of only $150 million, A Minecraft Movie has a chance to reach $1 billion at the global box office, though there is still a long way to go. Based on the global opening mentioned above, if the film has an average run for the remainder of its time in theaters and is able to see average legs week to week, it is likely to reach around $900 million. Based on that metric, until we see what the week-2 drop-off looks like, we will probably have a final number between $700 million and $1 billion when everything is said and done. 

Though the target demographic seems to be showing up to A Minecraft Movie in droves, which could easily set it up for long-term success, it is not all sunshine and rainbows. With the added caveat that I believe the film is guaranteed to make its money back at the very least, and some decent profit to boot, the reactions from audiences have not all been glowing. Over on Critricless, with 30 current votes, the movie stands at a 38% “Bogus” score, with several people (like the owner of Criticless, Blaine) liking it well enough and several others, like myself, just downright hating it and wishing we could get our time back. The Criticless audience is always a good metric for how a film is being received since the audience there consists of a well-mixed group of normies, those who follow online news/culture closely, and people who just love talking about and debating movies. 

I will be calling this weekend a massive win for Minecraft since its break-even and profit margins are all but guaranteed to occur, and rather quickly as well. Will the film make it to $1 billion? We will know for sure after next weekend’s drop. 

According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:

1. A Minecraft Movie ($157 million as a new release)
2. A Working Man (53% drop in 2nd weekend)
3. The Chosen: Last Supper Part 2 ($6.7 million as special Fathom release)
4. Snow White (58% drop in 3rd weekend)
5. The Woman in the Yard (52% drop in 2nd weekend)

Snow White and Disney Completely Embarrassed

Though it is still a bit too early to make firm projections on 2nd-weekend holdovers such as Jason Statham’s A Working Man and A24’s Death of a Unicorn due to low sales numbers and some markets not yet reporting, we can absolutely speak to just how poorly Disney’s Snow White continues to do. To paint the story, let us remind ourselves of a few things: the movie had one of the worst box office openings for any Disney live-action remake and one of the worst in general; the film’s budget was anywhere from $270 to $325 million; it dropped 66% from its first to second weekend, which is common for MCU-level movies, not family ones; and the overall sentiment within even the mainstream media’s coverage is that the film is guaranteed to lose at least $100 million by the end of its run (the MSM will always give tons of leeway to the studios). 

We now have some new metrics to consider since Snow White dropped another 58% in its 3rd weekend domestically. Most family movies start to see drops around the 30-45% range as they begin to leg out with those reliable family audiences that continue to trickle towards the new releases; that does not seem to be happening to this film. What makes matters worse for the film is when you put it up against other films from the same genre, starting point, or box office level. As of right now, the domestic total for the film trails Dumbo (2019) and The Marvels (2023) when adjusted for inflation. Remember that while Dumbo went on to do much better in every market, The Marvels was barely able to eke out $200 million at the global box office. With how little the movie is making, there is a chance that Snow White does not reach The Marvels’ numbers in either market (meaning it doesn’t even get to $100 million in either domestic or international totals). This continues the film’s complete collapse, which will likely result in losses exceeding $300 million… and this is under the assumption that the budget was only $270 million. If the final budget ends up being north of $300 million, it would mean losses could rise to over $350 million, making it one of the biggest box office bombs of the last several years and, potentially, of all time. 

Check out my latest box office videos on my YouTube channel HERE!

If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless! 

(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)

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