Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 5/19/24

Movies

What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!

IF Wins with Light Open as Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Holds Strong

As the summer box office continues to roll, so do its unpredictability and volatility. This past weekend, the new Ryan Reynolds-starring and John Krasinsky-directed film about imaginary friends, IF, opened roughly $5 million below expectations. Some were reporting that IF was looking to make around $40 million domestically in its opening weekend, but after a weak Thursday and Friday showing, those projections dropped to $35 million. Though the reactions to the film so far have been mixed, it is clear that there is still a lot of uncertainty at the box office when it comes to predicting what these movies will make. This also raises the question of whether this could be a sign of things to come for the rest of 2024 (especially the summer), with the number of wide-release (tent pole) films being limited or coming from studios that have struggled to drive a lot of people to the theater over the last few years. Among the most notable of these studios is Disney, which, last year, had no films break even and lost 100s of millions by the end of the year. 

Going back to IF, which had a reported budget of $110 million, the prospects of it making a profit or just breaking even do not look great. On average, most films make about 30% of their entire global box office in their opening weekend. While some in the last few years have done well down the stretch, this movie being an original idea from Krasinski in a world where stars do not drive people to theaters ultimately means that the chances of success are very low – practically non-existent. All in all, the film needs to make between $250-$350 million worldwide to break even, and much of that depends on where it makes most of its money. One of the few signs of hope IF has is that the Saturday numbers came in well above what was expected, which seems to indicate that the weaker Thursday and Friday numbers were hampered somewhat by the absence of some family audiences. With summer starting, we could see this film do better during the week or at least have a stronger hold in the weekends ahead. We will see what kind of drops it has next week and be able to make more firm predictions next weekend. 

According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:

1. IF (as a new release)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (55% drop in 2nd weekend)
3. The Strangers: Chapter 1 ($12 million as a new release)
4. The Fall Guy (38% drop in 3rd weekend)
5. Challengers (33% drop in 4th weekend)

Will Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Break Even?

A few days ago, I posted an article explaining why the current box office for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is really not that impressive. Whether looking at the raw total or comparing it to other entries in the franchise, the film has been tracking behind all of the other recent releases, especially when you adjust for inflation and/or compare ticket sales. Based on the second-weekend numbers for Apes, we can project the film will make about $407,210,573 at the global box office by the end of its run. Using the normal standards, that means that it will either make about $45,047,401 or lose about -$36,394,713 when all is said and done. Remembering the RCC method of charting, the current losses are about -$131,494,495, which means that the film has a very good chance of losing at least $5-$10 million before its box office run is over (in a most likely best-case scenario). Despite a better-than-expected opening and a fairly strong week 2 hold for a movie of its size, it looks like Disney will once again start off the summer with a box office loser. I must note, however, that Disney (through 20th Century Studios) is primarily a distributor of this movie, and there are several non-Disney producers and production companies listed. This means that while the film may not be a big money maker, there is still a chance that Disney will walk away with some cash for this one. 

For video coverage of this weekend’s box office, check out my latest video HERE. 

If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and as always, God bless! 

(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE, and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)