Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 6/16/24

Inside Out 2 Destroys Projections and Has Solid Chance of Crossing $1 Billion

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Inside Out 2 Destroys Projections and Has Solid Chance of Crossing $1 Billion

Just when it seemed like Disney and Pixar were done, Inside Out 2 and the marketing behind it have proven that, as a company, Disney still holds a lot of power at the theatrical box office. Opening to an estimated $155 million domestically and almost $300 million in the combined worldwide total, the film not only decimated the projections, which topped out at around $115 million domestically, but it also outperformed the original domestic opening for Inside Out (2015). Whereas the original film sold roughly 10,728,383 tickets domestically in its opening weekend, the newest film is looking at an estimated 11,923,077 tickets sold. In an era when almost every franchise movie is opening significantly lower than their predecessors or, in the best case scenario, holding its audience to similar levels, the fact that this movie is adding almost 2 million extra tickets does leave one scratching their head a bit. According to sources like Deadline, much of Inside Out 2’s success is being attributed to high walk-up numbers from the Hispanic community. This means that people buying their tickets with cash on the day of their showing at the physical theater are predominantly Hispanic (roughly 40% of the walk-up crowd). 

Are the Disney Woes Officially Over?

There is no doubt that this news will be well received by Disney and their shareholders, but it is important to note that what we are likely seeing here is a bit of an anomaly. Even the more “Disney-friendly” sites were projecting Inside Out 2 to come well below the numbers from the first movie. If you simply look at the recent box office trends (especially for anything associated with Disney), it is not hard to see why no one saw this kind of success coming. Based on the pre-sales for and effective marketing of the next major Disney release this year, Deadpool & Wolverine, there is no doubt that the company will have two successful hits in a row… not to mention the chance of having two films from the same summer season hitting over $1 billion, with one of them being a rated-R movie. I guess it is a bit poetic that Disney could end up having the most successful family movie of the year and the most successful adult-oriented film of the year within the span of about a month or two. With all of this being said, however, the real test of Disney’s “return to glory” will be in the films set to be released in the remainder of the year… especially with the TV-turned-movie project Moana 2, the box office of which will likely be much smaller than the numbers we are seeing for Inside Out 2. 

Will Inside Out 2 Hit $1 Billion?

The last thing I will say about Inside Out 2 is the chances of it hitting $1 billion dollars. I have talked before about how, on average, most films make about 30% (or ⅓ ) of their entire box office globally in their opening weekend. How much more or less depends on the second weekend holds and how it does down the line. With this being the case, at almost $300 million estimated globally for Inside Out 2, we can project that the film has an almost guaranteed chance of hitting $900 million by the end of its run. When you factor in that this opening weekend is far above the initial domestic projections – and remember that the film has not yet been released in several markets – there is a lot of evidence to indicate that $1 billion is almost a sure thing. The only factor we still do not know is how well Inside Out 2 will hold over the next week and especially during its second full weekend. With positive word-of-mouth and reviews, there is little reason to doubt that by the end of next weekend, we will be talking about how quickly it reaches $1 billion rather than whether it will or not. 

According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:

1. Inside Out 2 ($155 million as a new release)
2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die (42% drop in 2nd weekend)
3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (4% drop in 6th weekend)
4. The Garfield Movie (50% drop in 4th weekend)
5. The Watchers (48% drop in 2nd weekend)

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Holds Strong and Heads for Profit

The good news for the Bad Boys franchise continued this weekend with an estimated 42% domestic drop and the film reaching roughly $214,640,000 worldwide. Based on those week two numbers, we can project that the movie will make somewhere between $306,628,571 and $429,280,000 globally by the end of its run. According to my traditional charting, it is currently sitting at about -$21 million in losses, but when you take into account my RCC Method, the losses jump up to about -$47.3 million. Based on this roughly $20 million differential, I am projecting that Bad Boys: Ride or Die will make between $13-$87 million in net gain profits by the end of its run. Though the film is pacing behind Bad Boys For Life (2020), it is still well on its way to breaking even and making a small profit to boot. 

Check out my channel for the latest box office breakdown video HERE.

If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless! 

(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)