Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 6/2/24
BO Breakdown 6/2/24
What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!
Furiosa Flops BIG as Garfield and IF Almost Push It to Third Place
Just when you thought things couldn’t get worse for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, this past weekend happened. Not only did it get skunked by The Garfield Movie, as many predicted, but it even got beaten by the underperforming John Krasinski film IF in the original weekend estimates. Though the adjustment for the actuals put Furiosa in second place by about $200,000, this potential third-place finish in its second weekend points to an abysmal box office performance. While dropping 59% in a second weekend isn’t necessarily a death knell, when you are starting from an incredibly low point, it means this film is destined to be a box office catastrophe.
By making roughly $114,900,225 in the first two weeks, Furiosa is expected to accumulate between $164,143,179 and $229,800,450 at the global box office by the end of its run. Based on the fact that it dropped almost 60% after a disappointing opening, the chances of it reaching the “best case scenario” are not very likely. The Garfield Movie, on the other hand, had a strong hold of about 42% and is expected to make roughly $200-$300 million globally before it leaves theaters. The one issue when it comes to tracking this film is that it had an early opening internationally, and, therefore, the week-two numbers are not going to be as reliable. That being said, the strong hold in its second week seems to indicate that those box office totals are still quite realistic.
Based on the week-two numbers, my traditional charting indicates that Furiosa will lose between -$115 million and -$150 million. Not only does this mean that the film will be one of the biggest box office bombs of the year, but it also seems likely that any potential sequel/prequels they may have had planned are up in smoke. According to my RCC method of charting, the film is currently sitting at around -$198,584,876 in losses… this means that, whatever happens down the line, the film will likely lose about $150 million for Warner Bros.
According to my traditional chart, The Garfield Movie has already broken even and made about $2,266,562 in net profits. It is important to note, however, that because the film has made twice as much internationally, it still has a little ways to go to break even according to the RCC method; by that chart, The Garfield Movie is about -$20,527,318 in the red. That being the case, it is performing well enough that I expect it to hit the break-even point either this weekend or next weekend and has a great chance of collecting a fair profit. Remember that this has more to do with the $60 million budget and not as much with direct box office success, as the film is not racking up any major numbers.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- The Garfield Movie (42% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (59% drop in 2nd weekend)
- IF (35% drop in 3rd weekend)
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (33% drop in 4th weekend)
- The Fall Guy (30% drop in 5th weekend)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, IF, and Furiosa All Looking to Flop
Though this past weekend was mostly bad news for Furiosa, it was not much better for the prospects of IF or Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. As I have previously covered, both films are set to lose quite a bit of money for their respective studios, and not much has changed. According to my RCC charting, IF is currently at a loss of -$97,885,933, while the Apes film is looking at roughly -$88,257,882. Though Disney is primarily a distributor for Apes, which has multiple producers and production companies listed, this is definitely not the big win the early numbers seemed to indicate to some of the so-called “box office experts.” With the numbers we currently have, it is easy to say that Furiosa, IF, and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes will likely be the biggest box office bombs of the summer… and we are only just getting started!
Check out my channel for the latest box office breakdown video HERE.
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
