Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 6/30/24
BO Breakdown 6/30/24
What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!
Inside Out 2 Crosses $1 Billion in 3 Weeks
After several years of box office flops and major disappointments from their biggest brands, Disney finally has a major victory on their hands with Inside Out 2, which officially crossed the $1 billion mark this weekend after only being out for three weeks and with plenty of gas left in the tank. Not only did Inside Out 2 reach this major milestone in record time for modern Disney, but its net gains have already reached around $174.7 million, even according to my RCC Method. The projected profits will not only easily cover the film’s initial costs (even with marketing) but also a future project or two from Disney. Though these profits do not make up for the well over $1 billion in losses Disney has accrued theatrically over the last few years, it definitely makes a dent. Add to this the fact that Deadpool & Wolverine is projected to have the biggest box office opening and total box office of 2024 (and another $1 billion to boot), and things are definitely looking up for Disney… though this is likely to be fool’s gold for them, as their future projects do not seem that promising.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Inside Out 2 (43% drop in third weekend)
- A Quiet Place: Day One ($53 million as a new release)
- Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 ($11 million as a new release)
- Bad Boys: Ride or Die (45% drop in fourth weekend)
- The Bikeriders (66% drop in second weekend)
A Quiet Place: Day One Has Franchise-Worst Opening, But Overperforms
Despite the mainstream shill box office media’s desperate attempts to paint modern films as “franchise-biggest” or “record-breaking,” the fact remains that they never account for basic things like inflation and the massive changes in ticket prices. In the case of A Quiet Place: Day One, the weekend estimates indicate that it will be the lowest opening in the franchise in relation to estimated ticket sales and total domestic revenue. Based on the projected domestic opening of roughly $53 million, this would be behind A Quiet Place 2’s adjusted opening of $55 million and the original’s opening weekend of about $61 million. When we look at ticket sales, the newest film has about 4,076,923, which is less than both the original film’s 5,510,819 tickets and the sequel’s 4,571,849 tickets. It must be said that the newest entry did perform quite a bit better than the initial projections (by roughly $10 million). That being said, with a budget of about $67,000,000, A Quiet Place: Day One still has a little ways to go before it reaches profitability. If it has a strong week 2 hold, there is a good chance it will break even and make a decent profit.
The Bikeriders and Horizon Both Flop
Though The Bikeriders was an excellent film (and one of my favorites of 2024), its box office prospects have not been looking too great. With an estimated drop of about 66% in week 2 and a budget of about $40 million, we can now project that the film will likely lose about $50 million when all is said and done. The only real chance this movie had was a strong second-week hold, but for a smaller-budgeted film like this, a drop in the 60s is rarely a good sign. As much as I would hope that The Bikeriders would beat the odds, I personally do not think that is going to happen.
In the case of the massive new project from Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1, the opening weekend numbers for this 3-hour epic are quite dismal. With a little over $11 million domestically and a budget of about $50 million, the chances for this movie to make money are not looking good. Though a strong week 2 hold could end up being the saving grace of the film’s box office chances, the reviews and daily numbers do not seem to indicate that this will be happening. With Costner putting about $50 million of his own money to make this multipart series and at least one (or two) of the parts relying on the success of the first, the chances of the theatrical box office showing up are not too promising, and we are likely looking at yet another box office flop this year.
Check out my YouTube channel for the latest box office breakdown video HERE.
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE, and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
