Box Office Breakdown For Weekend of 7/21/24

Movies

What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!

Twisters Sees Monster Domestic Opening

As we wait for Deadpool & Wolverine, which is still tracking towards a monster domestic box office opening, we have an astonishing domestic debut for Twisters. Twisters is a sequel to the now classic 1996 disaster film Twister. To say that expectations for Twisters, both as a movie and as the box office hit, were low would be an understatement. This film is yet another example of a Hollywood product that no one was asking for. That being said, Twisters still opened to roughly $80 million domestically and over $123,200,000 million globally. Though it cost about $200 million to make before tax credits from Oklahoma (which some are reporting brings the net spend to about $155 million), this is a solid start for a film. Based on estimates from Box Office Theory, Twisters could end up making over $300 million domestically and between $400-$500 million globally. 

The break-even for Twisters ranges between $387 million to about $465 million globally. Based on these early numbers, it seems fair to say those figures are within reach. The only thing that could presumably disrupt its chances at the box office over the next few weeks is the release of Deadpool & Wolverine this coming Thursday, as that Rated-R film is expected to dominate the adult box office segment for a good portion of its run. I have always been critical of the concept that mere competition leads to box office failures. However, there is no doubt that the vastly bloated budget of Twisters is a severe hindrance to any prospects of box office success. The film will ultimately need every cent it can get its fingers on. We will, of course, have a much better idea of these prospects next weekend once we see what the week two totals look like and how step the week two drop-off ends up being. 

According to the-numbers.com the top 5 this weekend domestically were:

1. Twisters ($80.5 million as a new release)
2. Despicable Me 4 (45% drop in 3rd weekend)
3. Inside Out 2 (36% drop in 6th weekend)
4. Longlegs (48% drop in 2nd weekend)
5. A Quiet Place: Day One (46% drop in 4th weekend)

Longlegs is Already Making a Profit While Fly Me to The Moon is Another Massive Flop

The surprise success of the latest Neon film, Longlegs, has caused much conversation about the prospects for lower-budget horror/thriller films to make money at a volatile box office. Regardless of one’s conclusions, there is no doubt that Nic Cage’s new film has been a big success for everyone involved, despite mixed reviews. With a reported budget of under $10 million, we can now project that Longlegs will likely end up making about $25-$50 million in net profits by the end of its run. Though this may sound low, keep in mind that this would mean the film pays for itself and any marketing. Additionally, it could pay for the budget of roughly two other movies with similar budgets. It could even potentially cover their marketing costs. Any theatrical release ultimately has this goal, and there is no doubt that Longlegs has met and exceeded its potential. 

The same could not be said for Fly Me to The Moon, which has a budget of roughly $100 million and only made about $30.6 million at the global box office. Based on these abysmal numbers, we can now project that the film will lose roughly $120 million when everything is said and done. Some people often make excuses for any project from Apple TV or even Amazon that comes to theaters. However, one has to be honest that no studio ever wants to lose money on a movie… especially north of $100 million. 

Check out my channel for the latest box office breakdown video HERE.

If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the complete charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day and, as always, God bless! 

(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)