Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 7/28/24
BO Breakdown 7/28/24
What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!
Deadpool & Wolverine Breaks Records and Dominates the Box Office
The time has finally arrived for the introduction of Deadpool and Wolverine into the MCU, and it is shaping up to be quite an impressive debut for this rated-R flick. Not only did the film open to 2024’s best domestic opening with roughly $205 million, which easily beat Pixar’s Inside Out 2 (which opened to about $154 million), but it also made over $438 million worldwide, which is the best opening for a Disney property since Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness from back in 2022, which opened to $450 million globally. While MOM saw a historic week two drop-off and saw massive decreases every week after, the word of mouth for Deadpool & Wolverine seems to be indicating that it will hold well not only for a $200 million budgeted Marvel film but even for a R-rated film which has a much more limited audience. Based on this opening, I can easily project that this film will be flying towards $1 billion in three weeks or less based on my calculations. Remember that most movies make about 30-33% of their entire global box office during their opening weekend on average. If that holds for this movie, it will likely make about $1.2 billion if it has an average box office run… and so far, there has been nothing average about this release. Though the far more accessible Inside Out 2 will likely have a larger total and take the biggest movie of the year title at the box office, Deadpool & Wolverine will easily be in the top 3 and still has a chance to make quite a bit more. The sky’s the limit for this film, and where it ends up will only become clearer next week when we see just how much the numbers drop and if this movie seems to have any legs.
According to “Tony” over at Deadline, just like for Inside Out 2, we are seeing massive walk-up numbers from the Hispanic community for this film. It appears they made up about 35% of all tickets sold for the Thursday premiere, which, if we recall, saw an incredibly impressive $38.5 million debut. What is fascinating about the numbers for Deadpool & Wolverine is that though it is rated R and is objectively facing audience limitations because of that, it is still somehow performing similarly to a PG-13 movie and is impressive not only when put up against other R-rated films but even some major PG-13 releases. Whether you like the movie or not (and the vast majority coming out of the theater are enjoying it quite a bit), no one can deny just how impressive its performance has been. There is no doubt that the aggressive marketing campaign that started months ago and the release of an actually entertaining product are the key factors that have led to this film’s success.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Deadpool & Wolverine ($205 million as a new release)
- Twisters ($59% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Despicable Me 4 (42% drop in 4th weekend)
- Inside Out 2 (35% drop in 7th weekend)
- Longlegs (43% drop in 3rd weekend)
Twisters is on Pace to Have an Impressive Run, But Will it Profit?
Though Deadpool & Wolverine is clearly dominating the box office and eating up much of the audience share, the other films in release still performed quite well in their own right. Twisters, which had an impressive $80 million domestic debut last week, saw an equally impressive week two hold of about 59%, which not only pokes holes in the “competition hurts movies” theory but bodes well for the longevity of the film at the domestic box office.
Based on the numbers we are seeing, we can now project that Twisters will make between $316 million and about $442 million at the global box office by the end of its run. This means there is a chance for the film, with its massive $155 million budget, to make its money back during its theatrical run. It must be said, however, that the range of total profits on this thing is all over the place. The film will either end with losses of around -$50 million or gains of about $25 million. The chances for it to have a good post-theatrical run are pretty good, but regardless of that, this film is clearly doing better than anyone could have imagined, and that makes it a win in anyone’s book. Twisters will probably end the year as the biggest surprise of the summer, which is saying something for a film that is decent at best.
Check out my channel for the latest box office breakdown video HERE.
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
