Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 8/11/24

BO Breakdown 8/11/24

Movies

What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!

Deadpool & Wolverine Easily Passes $1 Billion in Only Three Weeks

Even though the newest Blake Lively film was almost able to dethrone Ryan Reynolds’ Deadpool & Wolverine, the global juggernaut was able to once again take the #1 spot at the domestic box office and fly past $1 billion globally in a matter of only three weeks. Not only does this put the film on a similar pace with Inside Out 2, which also crossed $1 billion in the same time frame, but Deadpool & Wolverine is still ahead of where Inside Out 2 was at the same point in its release (at least when comparing the domestic totals). Since Inside Out 2 is starting to slow down a bit and has so far made over $630 million domestically, we can expect that, though it may still win out in the end, the chances of Deadpool & Wolverine making over $600 million domestically is not off the table. As of right now, the only major gap between the two films is in the international totals, where Inside Out 2 holds an almost $400 million advantage. Though Inside Out 2 has been in release for several more weeks, that number is not likely to be matched. As I have been saying for weeks now, however, the sky really is still the limit for Deadpool & Wolverine… especially when there is nothing set to compete with it any time soon (if that really matters). 

As of right now, Deadpool & Wolverine has made roughly $179,106,359 in net profits due to its very high production budget of $200 million. With the accompanying massive spend on its marketing, the film may actually be a bit less profitable than even what my charting is indicating. Since we do not know – and likely will not know anytime soon – just how much money was spent to promote the film, we can only guess based on the typical standards, which means a massive win for Disney and a potential endpoint of over $300 million in net profits. Based on the current tracking, we can expect Deadpool & Wolverine to end its worldwide run with between $1.3-$1.6 billion, which means it has a good chance of being the most successful R-rated film of all time… even when adjusting for inflation. 

According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine (44% drop in 3rd weekend)
2. It Ends With Us ($50 million as a new release)
3. Twisters (34% drop in 4th weekend)
4. Borderlands ($8.8 million as a new release)
5. Despicable Me 4 (30% drop in 6th weekend)

It Ends With Us Surprises Everyone And is Already Profitable

No one was expecting the newest Blake Lively movie to be anywhere close to contention for the top spot domestically in its opening, even when up against the third weekend of Deadpool & Wolverine. Though Shawn Robbins of Box Office Theory was calculating a potential $40-55 million opening, the traditional studio metrics were only looking at about $25 million or so. Not only does this score points for the newer ways of tracking box office, but it also shows how impressive this movie is doing. 

With a budget of only about $25 million, the movie has already made its money back and about $2 million in net profits. It is very rare in today’s box office market for any film to make its money back after only just opening, but if it continues to do well, It Ends With Us is poised to end its run with tens of millions in total profit. When taking into account that the stars of the top two films this week are married, one cannot help but point out the box office power both are currently showing. It must be said, however, that stars today really do not sell movies, as was once the case in Hollywood. But clearly, the marketing and word-of-mouth for both movies have been very effective and will continue to bring incredible returns on investments for both for quite some time. 

Borderlands, Harold and the Purple Crayon, and Trap Flop

Though one can argue whether or not Trap will ultimately end its run as a box office loser, the fact remains that the movie is not doing all that well and won’t make much even if it does end up breaking even. Based on its week-two numbers, we can now project that the film will make somewhere between $64,680,000 and $90,552,000 by the end of its worldwide run. This means that Trap will likely either lose about $10 million or make about $5 million, according to my charting. 

The case is much worse for Harold and the Purple Crayon, as we can now project that the film will only make between $22,692,536 and $31,769,550 and, therefore, lose about +$40 million. From what I have heard, the movie may actually find life in its post-theatrical run, as many have praised it and said it is great fun for the whole family. That being said, the fact remains that no one is seeing Harold and the Purple Crayon.

However, the worst case by far is the new film Borderlands, which made only $8.8 million in its domestic debut. As of the writing of this article, there are no numbers being reported for its international opening, which likely means when they do come in… they will not look too great. Based on the fact that the reported budget was over $100 million, we can expect this film to lose between $100-$150 million when all is said and done. We will be able to speak more clearly on this next weekend. 

Check out my channel for the latest box office HERE.

If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless! 

(if you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE, and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)