Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 8/4/24

Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 8/4/24

Movies

What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!

Deadpool & Wolverine Shatters Expectations

The year 2024 will be remembered for a lot of things, and what is even crazier is that we still have several months to go. As far as the box office is concerned, the most significant thing to happen is the insane box office run for Deadpool & Wolverine. Not only has the movie crossed $824 million at the global box office, but it had one of the most impressive domestic holds we have ever seen for an MCU film (especially considering this movie is rated R). The drop of only about 54% means that while it continues to dominate globally, at the domestic market, it is currently ahead of where Inside Out 2 was at the same point in its release. If we consider whether these types of holds will continue (and at this point, there is very little reason to doubt that it will), it means that Deadpool & Wolverine has a strong chance of ending north of $600 million domestically and +$800 million internationally. Many speculated that the insane +$200 million domestic opening would fall back down to earth, but if anything, one could argue that this movie is not and will not perform like the standard R-rated or MCU flick. 

At $824 million at the global box office, we can now project that Deadpool & Wolverine will make between $1.17-$1.65 billion worldwide if it follows a traditional tracking pattern. Since this movie has not followed any of the conventional rules when it comes to tracking, however, it is not outside the realm of possibility for it to land well over $1.6 billion when all is said and done. If I had to make a bet on whether it would beat Inside Out 2 at the box office by the time both end their respective runs, I would honestly say that IO2 has a much better chance. The prevailing wisdom behind this is that kids/family movies generally see much stronger holds because their target demographic is typically not those with full-time out-of-the-house work or other obligations to worry about. That being said, I would not bet against the potential of what Deadpool & Wolverine could end up doing when its run finally finishes. 

According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine (54% drop in 2nd weekend)
2. Twisters (35% drop in 3rd weekend)
3. Trap ($15.6 million as a new release)
4. Despicable Me 4 (23% drop in 5th weekend)
5. Inside Out 2 (22% drop in 8th weekend)

Twisters Holds Strong Again, But is Still Weighed Down by Its Massive Budget

Last week, we talked about how well Twisters was doing and how much of a surprise it has been in various ways. That strong performance continued this weekend with only a 35% drop for its second weekend. The fact remains that it cost roughly $155 million to make the film (which is a number that likely already includes any potential tax credits it was to receive from Oklahoma), and its $274 million global total still leaves it in the hole at roughly -$93 million. It was recently announced that the film would be coming to VOD sooner than expected, which could end up helping it bolster its already impressive run, but it still likely won’t make any money back until Universal sells the streaming rights to the likes of Netflix. 

Trap and Harold and the Purple Crayon Disappoint

Night Shyamalan’s new film Trap had a decent opening with about $20 million at the global box office, while the new kid’s movie, Harold and the Purple Crayon, opened to an abysmal $9 million globally. In either case, the long-term box office prospects do not currently look that great, though it is easy to see that Trap has a massive advantage. Not only did Harold and the Purple Crayon cost $40 million against the $30 million budget of Trap, but the total box office (especially where each landed domestically) means that the chances of Harold breaking even are almost non-existent, whereas Trap has an outside chance, but still a long climb ahead if it is going to succeed. Trap needs to make roughly $75-$100 million at the global box office to hit its break-even point, while Harold needs to make about $100-$120 million to do the same. I personally do not think either will be able to do this theatrically despite both films receiving a lot of praise, especially over on Criticless. 

Check out my channel for the latest box office breakdown video HERE.

If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless! 

(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE, and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)