Is Disney Keeping Movie Screens From Sonic the Hedgehog 3?
Disney is losing a rigged game. The big box office story of the Christmas Season is Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 bringing in more money than Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King. This is a big deal for a few reasons: first, the live-action adaptations of Disney’s classic animated films were once massive box office juggernauts but have been underperforming for a few years, and now they’re losing to other family movies (with the caveat that this is a silly prequel, not a straight-up adaptation); second, something with The Lion King stamped on it is losing to a video game adaptation, albeit a sequel to a popular series (but not as popular as The Lion King); third, a tent pole Disney movie is losing to the third in a series of films that made less money in its opening weekend than its predecessors. But the one none of the big outlets are talking about is that Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is beating Mufasa: The Lion King despite having its potential earnings hampered by Disney. How?
WDW Pro has an idea, which he wrote about on That Park Place. The gist of the article is that Mufasa: The Lion King is playing on more screens than Sonic the Hedgehog 3; Sonic 3 started with 3,761 screens, while Mufasa hit the ground running with 4,100 screens. And that’s fair enough; theaters probably figured the Disney children’s film would win the Christmas box office. However, Sonic 3 won the weekend decisively, as Odin charted in his box office breakdown; Sonic 3 raked in about $60 million (adjusted from $62 million), considerably more than Mufasa’s $35 million. Economics dictates this should initiate a change in the number of screens showing each film, as theaters will want to give the bigger earner more opportunities to bring in business. But the change was almost nothing: Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is now showing on 3,769 screens, a mere eight more across the country, while Mufasa is playing on the exact same amount of screens. This probably has to do with the deals Disney forces on theaters to show its new releases; they make theaters agree to show the movie on a certain number of screens for a certain number of weeks, or else Disney won’t let them show the film. When The Last Jedi was released in 2017, Disney forced theaters to agree to show the film on their largest screen for a minimum of four weeks, as well as to give Disney 65% of the ticket price instead of the usual 50%; moreover, if a theater violated any part of this agreement, they had to give Disney 70% of the ticket sales instead of the already huge 65%.
It’s not unreasonable to assume Disney is doing the same for Mufasa: The Lion King based on the evidence. It’s underperforming and losing to another family-friendly release during Christmastime, yet it loses no screens while its more popular competitor only gets eight more screens all over America? That only makes sense if there was a prior arrangement the theaters couldn’t get out of. It makes you wonder how much better Sonic the Hedgehog 3 would be doing if theaters were free to boost it like they assuredly want to; while Sonic 3 is making less than the first two Sonic movies, it’s also playing on fewer screens: Sonic the Hedgehog had 4,167 screens during its opening weekend, while Sonic the Hedgehog 2 had 4,234, compared to Sonic 3’s 3,761. And despite its handicaps, it’s still trouncing Disney. In that article, Pro wonders if Disney’s ability to rig the game in its favor will suffer after Sonic 3’s success. Pro lays the duty at the feet of other studios, and while I’m sure they could throw some weight around – or push aside some of Disney’s hay-stuffed shirt – I think the theaters are in a better position. They could all refuse to play Disney’s game next time. If every theater refuses to comply, what’s Disney going to do? Their streaming service is a money pit, so they have no alternative release venue. And theaters aren’t much incentivized to acquiesce to a company that’s giving them losing films and costing them money they could be making on something else. Disney has more to lose, and if theaters are tired of being treated like this by a bullying studio that’s losing its muscle, now’s the time to push back.
Let us know what you think of Sonic the Hedgehog 3’s distribution woes in the comments!
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