The Marvels Has Historically Bad Second Weekend

Movies

As disastrous as The Marvels’ opening weekend box office was, its second weekend painted an even direr picture. According to The Hollywood Reporter, the new Marvel film dropped 78%, the largest second-weekend drop not just for an MCU film but for any superhero film “in the modern era” (which is ill-defined because it’s a way of cushioning the embarrassment). That means it is all but impossible for The Marvels to recoup its costs, let alone earn a profit. The media is already doing what they can to make this everyone but Disney and Marvel’s fault; Nerdrotic has a good video showing the many scapegoats on which they’re lining up to lay the blame for The Marvels’ failure. But what’s happening can be observed by looking at the previous lowest MCU second-weekend drop: Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania with 69%. That both of these occurred in the same year is indicative of a trend; people don’t like these movies and aren’t coming back. The proof of that is Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, which had a disappointing opening weekend but a good second weekend because people liked it and went back and likely told their friends about it. The M-She-U aspect of this is a factor, for sure,  especially because it lessens good writing as a priority (or even a concern, looking at the finished products), but it’s not just that; the movies suck.

How much this will change anything at Marvel is anyone’s guess right now. Captain America: Brave New World is going to spend five months in reshoots, which means the movie is effectively being remade. This would indicate that they understand they have to make something people like to get them to go to the movies (and go back). On the other hand, reports are that the Silver Surfer will be a woman in Fantastic Four, which, if true, means they’re not changing all that much. Fantastic Four hasn’t begun filming yet; there’s plenty of time to stop that nonsensical decision. If they’re serious about course-correcting (which they haven’t said and probably won’t even if they are), they’ll make a traditional, crowd-pleasing Fantastic Four that isn’t burdened with social messaging. But they may not even know that this is a problem, or at least don’t want to admit it because their heels are dug in too deep. I do wonder how much of this the studios will be able to take; Disney has had a bad year all-around, with the non-Guardians Marvel stuff, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, and Elemental all bombing, and the forecast for Wish isn’t looking good. And that’s not even counting the Disney+ shows that nobody watches. I know the crazy train has no breaks, but sooner or later, it’s going to run out of coal to keep it moving.